Tatsiana Ketrar
⬤ USD/CAD saw sharp back and forth price action following recent Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve developments before ultimately moving lower. The pair initially jumped but found strong offers above the 1.3600 area, which capped upside attempts. Selling pressure then pushed USD/CAD back into the range and below the June 2025 low at 1.3540, a level now firmly in focus for the rest of the session.
⬤ The chart shows repeated failures near the 1.3600 zone, confirming it as a key supply area. Each rebound attempt toward 1.3580 and 1.3600 stalled, reinforcing these levels as near term topside markers. Once price slipped back below those bounce levels, momentum faded and USD/CAD broke through the 1.3540 support, marking a clear shift in short term structure with price trading beneath a level that previously acted as a notable reference point.
⬤ With USD/CAD holding below 1.3540, attention has turned to lower support targets between 1.3400 and 1.3420 if the pair remains below the former support. At the same time, the chart also outlines conditions under which the break could lose credibility—a recovery back above 1.3580 or a sustained move above 1.3600 would suggest the downside move may be a false break rather than the start of a deeper decline.
⬤ This price action matters for the broader FX market because USD/CAD is sensitive to shifts in monetary policy expectations and risk sentiment. A sustained break below a long watched support level can influence short term positioning and volatility, particularly after major central bank driven swings. How the pair behaves around 1.3540 will help clarify whether the move lower extends toward deeper support or stabilizes back into the prior range.
Tatsiana Ketrar
