Nataly Kambur
⬤ USD/CAD's changed direction after finishing a corrective phase inside a bigger bearish structure. The pair recently climbed to test the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone—roughly between 1.389 and 1.395. The chart shows this move as a temporary breather within the ongoing downtrend, not a reversal.
⬤ The Elliott Wave count identifies this advance into the Fib zone as wave 2—essentially a corrective pause after the initial drop. Price hit this resistance area but couldn't hold above it, which fits classic corrective behavior. Selling pressure kicked in right at this zone, signaling the correction's likely done according to the wave framework.
The correction is complete, and we're now seeing the early stages of an impulsive wave 3 to the downside.
⬤ USD/CAD's now moving into the early phase of an impulsive wave 3 downward. This follows the completed correction and shows the trend's picking back up. The chart's projected path points lower, matching both the broader bearish trend and the ongoing dollar weakness. There aren't any reversal signals—the structure still lines up with a downward move.
⬤ Here's why this matters: it confirms the technical sequence of correction-then-continuation in USD/CAD. The rejection from the 0.5-0.618 Fib zone gives us a clear reference point marking where the corrective phase ended. With wave 3 now unfolding as expected, the focus shifts to whether downside momentum picks up steam. How price behaves during this impulsive phase will shape near-term sentiment and either strengthen or challenge the pair's bearish outlook.
Nataly Kambur
