⬤ The S&P 500 has started 2026 on solid ground, up about 1% so far this month and potentially heading toward a fourth January in a row finishing in the green. The index has closed January higher each of the past three years, and the current uptick keeps that streak alive. January returns since 2008 have been all over the map—some years brought sharp gains while others saw significant drops—but the recent three-year run stands out as relatively uncommon.
⬤ Looking back further helps explain why traders pay so much attention to how January plays out. Since 1950, when the S&P 500 finishes January in positive territory, the index has ended the full year higher roughly 87% of the time. It's not a crystal ball, but it's made January something of an early mood check for the market.
⬤ Since the financial crisis, January performance has been a mixed bag. The index took serious hits in 2008, 2009, and 2016, but posted strong gains in years like 2013, 2018, 2019, and 2023. The current three-year winning streak is notable within that varied history. This year's advance remains modest, but finishing the month in positive territory would mark four Januarys in a row—a fairly rare achievement.
⬤ For the broader market, a fourth straight positive January would reinforce the idea that U.S. stocks remain resilient and align with historical patterns typically linked to strong annual returns. That said, past seasonal trends don't guarantee future results, and plenty can change as economic data and policy shifts roll in throughout the year.
