Dmitri Lysenko
⬤ Gold stabilized following a brutal selloff, with XAU/USD finding solid footing just above the October 2025 high and the base trendline from October's rally. The pullback was one of the most aggressive retracements we've seen in this advance, but selling dried up as price respected the longer-term technical framework.
⬤ The chart reveals the decline stopped cold in the $4,380–$4,400 zone, which has become the critical level to watch heading into the week. This area lines up with old resistance that's now acting as support and matches key retracement levels, making it technically significant. After briefly touching this zone, XAU started climbing again, showing buyers are still defending the bullish structure despite wild swings.
⬤ Looking higher, the bounce is running into initial resistance around $4,780–$4,790, with a tougher barrier sitting at $4,935–$4,950. Breaking cleanly above that upper band could spark fresh volatility, especially if negative gamma forces more hedging activity as prices whip around. Without that breakout, the action could stay choppy and corrective instead of trending.
⬤ This matters because it shows the battle between solid long-term momentum and aggressive short-term selling. The bigger trend is still technically alive above $4,380–$4,400, but failing to crack resistance could trap XAU in extended back-and-forth trading. Gold may end up grinding sideways in a wide $4,400–$4,900 range until volatility cools off or something forces a clear directional move.
Dmitri Lysenko
