Alex Bobrov
⬤ USD/CHF switched gears after bumping into strong resistance, pulling back from a key extreme zone on the hourly chart. The pair climbed into the blue box area between roughly 0.7760 and 0.7840—a spot where Fibonacci targets lined up with Elliott Wave projections. That's typically where rallies run out of steam rather than push higher.
⬤ Once price hit that zone, the buying dried up fast. USD/CHF couldn't break through to new highs and started rolling over instead, exactly what you'd expect from a technical rejection. The chart marks an invalidation level way up near 0.8040, well above where things are trading now. As long as price stays under that ceiling, the setup favors more downside or at least sideways action—definitely not a buy zone.
⬤ After getting rejected, USD/CHF began carving out a bearish structure with lower highs showing up clearly on the right side of the chart. Sellers are now running the show after buyers failed to extend the move. This matters beyond just this pair—USD/CHF often reflects shifts in safe-haven demand and dollar strength overall. If this pullback gains traction, it could signal a broader correction for the greenback against the franc.
⬤ The next few sessions will tell the story. Either we see follow-through selling pressure, or price steadies into consolidation mode. Either way, that'll shape how traders view the dollar across related pairs in the near term.
Alex Bobrov
