It’s seems like Donald Trump doesn’t mind creating some kind of an alliance with Vladimir Putin. Is so, can he succeed or will he become another U.S. president fooled by Putin. This is the question a number of international experts are trying to answer.
For now, the details of the plan are vague. The current ambiguity existing among the representatives of Trump’s administration hints at this fact. Even when the USA's Permanent Representative to the United Nations demanded for the condemnation of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, Donald Trump seemed to still have some hope for making friends with Putin. At the same time, he wouldn’t dare say something like ‘the USA is as blood-thirsty as Russia’.
It seems like the USA’s plan related to Russia may well be something like that:
The USA will unite with Russia to destroy the Islamic terrorism in the Middle East and around the globe. In exchange for that, Russia could refuse to cooperate with Iran, the USA’s enemy in the region, and stop the escalation of the Ukrainian conflict while cutting its nuclear weapons. Over the long-term, tighter relations with Russia could help the USA curb China’s global expansion.
End even if Russian hackers could have helped Trump win the election, this doesn’t mean that he can fully trust Putin, the experts say. The Kremlin and the White House have different ambitions. Even if the countries did really have common goals, their armies would fight together as allies. Their systems do not interact. In order to establish good cooperation both of them would have to share their top secrets costing billions of dollars if not even more.
At the same time, Russia is not going to start a conflict with Iran, which is seen by Russia as a promising outlet for Russian exports. On top of that, Russia and Iran are almost neighbors and they seem to want to share the influence over the Middle East rather than fighting over it.
Moreover, the idea that Moscow can become Washington’s ally against Beijing is even less real and probable. Russia is weaker than China in multiple aspects, including demographics, economy, army etc. Putting doesn’t’ have either enough power of desire to spoil relations with China. On the contrary, Russia values trade relations with China. Both Russia and China have a lot in common, including intimidating neighbors, resisting the Western rhetoric on human rights and freedoms. Even if a conflict with China would be a reasonable step for the USA, Russia would still not help.
However, the experts assume that the biggest issue here is Europe. Trump cannot give Putting even more freedom in Europe. And he is not going to recognize the annexation of the Crimea and let the existing world order just collapse. Trump has been giving controversial hints, especially when it comes to the NATO. In case you don’t know, Trump thinks the NATO is outdated and inefficient. At least he used to think so since not so long ago, Trump promised the NATO his support. Many of his advisors do not even seem to care whether the EU will stay alive or cease to exist in the future.
Anyway, the experts say that the very dream of big deal between Russia and the USA is nonsense. Even if Donald trump were the best negotiator in the world, there would not be any big deal in this case. Even more, Trump seems to be a touchy person, which means that he may well spoil relations with Russia himself once he realizes that Putin is trying to manipulate him.
