Nouriel Roubini, a world-famous economist who predicted the 2008 global crisis, expressed his opinion on how Trump’s isolationism policy may affect the entire world.
First of all, Donald Trump’s victory during the latest presidential election in the USA is not just a populist attempt to react to globalization. Chances are, the very “Pax Americana” is coming to an end. For those of you who don’t know, this is a system led by the Western community based on free exchange and collective security and created by the USA and its allies after World War II.
The new world order established after WWII put the United States in charge of the economic world and created enough space to back more than 70 years of prosperity in the USA. Experts say that this system relies on market-oriented mechanisms, including the liberalization of trade, amid more liquid capital flows and reasonable social security. The order was set at the expense of the USA backing security in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia by means of the NATO and other alliances.
However, now the entire system is jeopardized if to believe President-Elect Trump’s populist and anti-globalist policies of protectionism that he is going to implement once he is in the White House. The thing is, such policies curb external trade and free capital and job flows. At the same time, now he threatens the existing security guarantees by saying that he will Make Washington’s allies pay more to get protection from the USA.
If President-Elect Trump really decides to stick to the “America Above All Else” slogan in his foreign policy, his administration will uncover a new geopolitical strategy based on isolationism and unilateral decisions aimed at catering for the interests of the United States in the first place.
Back in the 1920s and 1930s, the USA already implemented similar policies, which contributed to starting the most terrible war in our history – World War II. The mentioned policies started from introducing the so-called Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act affecting thousands of imported goods and provoking currency and trade wars with trade partners and eventually aggravating the Great Depression.
Even worse, the American isolationism of the past, which relied on false confidence that the USA is well protected by the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, gave Nazi Germany and the Empire of Japan to start wars and put the entire planet in jeopardy. The only thing that made the USA pull its head out of the sand was Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor.
According to the famous economist, the bottom line is that such policies are dangerous and may well become recipes for military and economic disaster. This means that in case America goes for isolationism once again, this may trigger another major conflict. Even without considering the chances of the USA quitting Europe, the EU and the Eurozone are on the verge of disintegration anyway, especially after the UK decided to quit the EU for good in 2016 and is now waiting for the Brexit scenario to be launched in 2017.
At the same time, Italy, France and maybe some other EU states may see populists and anti-EU parties come into power this year. Without the USA’s active involvement in the European affairs, Russia’s aggressive and revanchist tendencies may take the lead in Europe. As you know, Russia, has already challenged the USA and Europe in Ukraine, Baltic and Balkan countries, and Syria. They say Russia may take advantage of any prospects of European disintegration and become more influential in the former Soviet block of countries while supporting pro-Russian movements in the EU. If the EU starts losing the American “security umbrella”, nobody in the entire world will benefit from this more than Putin.
On top of that, Donald Trump’s statements are threatening to aggravate the existing tensions and conflicts in the Middle East. As you remember, he keeps on saying that he is going to make America energy-independent, which may hint that America will no longer need crude oil from the Middle East. Also, President-Elect Trump says Islam is dangerous, not just those dangerous Islamic terrorists. This is not just Mr. Trump’s opinion. His National Security Advisor shares this opinion of his. Those Islamic terrorists will benefit from such statements when making the 2 civilizations collide and clash. And that’s why such statements are dangerous.
The way it used to be in the 1930s, when the U.S. isolationism and protectionism started dragging down the global trade and economic growth and creating space for regional and international conflicts, President-Elect Trump’s policies may give Russia and other countries an opportunity to challenge the existing U.S.-led world order.
