Edward Culchenko
The IGC has recently published a soybean production report. The figures outpaced the forecast by 3 million metric tons, thereby reaching 285 mmt. At the same time, the consumption figures were 3 mmt higher as well (282 mmt).
At the same time, the supply-demand ratio given by the USDA is different (the surplus is higher – overproduction - 283,5 mmt vs 270 mmt). The information is provided by the Commodity Trading Department of Masterforex-V Academy.
At the sam time, the net sales for the week ending on November 28th are reported to be down. The sales volume for the 2013-2014 marketing year is slightly over 805 000 metric tons. The similar figures for the delivery during the next (20014-2015) marketing year are 335 600 metric tons against expected 0,9-1,2 mmt.
Meanwhile, the weather in South America keeps favoring the future crop. The weather forecasts are nearly ideal for the whole time until December 22nd. Brazil is about to have slightly more rains than needed but this is not a big deal.
Several South-American agencies predict higher yields across the continent this agricultural year. Brazil is expected to harvest 86 to 90 mmt (the USDA's expectations are around 88 mmt) while Argentine is expected to harvest 56 mmt (the USDA's forecast is 53,5 mmt).
The bottom line: As you can see, there haven't been any major changes in the region. The market is being driven by the same factors like the US export and the weather conditions in South America (which influences the productivity of the crop). Therefore, the market is not expected to change the existing trend in the short run.
Edward Culchenko
