At first sight, we have just witnessed a sensational event. It seems like the bilateral relations between Iran and the USA are improving. As you probably know, not so long ago, Iran and 6 international mediators (members of the UN Security Council and Germany) signed an agreement leading to freezing the Iranian nucellar program in exchange for the elimination of all those sanctions against Iran.
It seems like we should be celebrating the event. However, there are countries that indignant at the situation. Obviously, this is Israel. Tel-Aviv called it a terrible agreement between the West and Iran, even a historical mistake and the USA's betrayal of Israel as a devoted ally in the Middle East.
Israel says that the world's most terrible regime made another big step towards developing nuclear arms and is unlikely to abandon this idea despite the agreement.
So, what about the US-Israeli relations? Are they deteriorating due to the agreement? Will Israel remain a strategic asset and ally for the USA?
USA and Israel
According to Maariv, an Israeli edition, has published an article with a crying headline «Who Betrayed Israel?» Journalist knows that such sensational headlines guarantee popularity and attention.
However, in this case, the headline reflects the general tone of the entire article. Indeed, it even resembles a female nerve storm with crying, resentment and threats. It seems like the author is trying to be sincere but usually hysteria has nothing to do with rational thinking.
In his article, the author confesses that most of the globe doesn't like Israel. At the same time, he says that the recent nuclear agreement is another link in the chain of the USA’s errors, which shows us how dangerous it is to rely on the While House. Moreover, the author says that Obama and his administration have been openly hostile towards Israel over the last few years.
Of course, nobody betrayed Israel. Tel-Aviv and Washington still have special relations. Still, the situation in the USA and outside has changed, thereby changing the USA’s external policy a little.
Changes
There are several factors that changed the relations:
The USA seems to have changed their interests in the Middle East. Obviously, the USA is eager to improve the bilateral relations with Iran. Firstly, this is a major player in the region. Secondly, no country likes endless tensions with others. By the way, if the relations are improved, this will allow the USA to resolve several issue, including:
the ability to weaken Russia’s influence in Iran and the entire Middle East. At the same time, it is a kind of a block-post on the way of radical Sunnite groups in the Caucasus and Middle Asia. Russia has lost its loyal regimes in Libya and Iraq while other nations in the region don’t seem to be as friendly.
At the same time, this can be an extra escape way for the US troops deployed in Afghanistan. The USA doesn’t seem to rely on Pakistan anymore.
At the same time, this is a chance to improve the relations with Saudi Arabia that worsened after the USA abandoned the idea of starting a military campaign against Syria.
On top of that, the USA now looks more focused on China and the Asian-Pacific region.
At the same time, some experts say that Israel has never been a useful ally in the region. They suggest recollecting military operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria etc. When exactly was Israel a useful ally?
The second factor is the economic crisis. Most experts assume that Israel is the leader in terms of financial aid received from the USA since WWII. Israel gets $2-3bn a year! This is 1,4% of the US budget! Still, amid higher deficit and debt, the US government finds it harder and harder to spare the sum to keep sponsoring Israel! The sponsorship is mainly given to Israel to purchase arms. Still, the list of arms is reserved.
The Israeli Shekel has strengthened a bit against the US Dollar and the common European currency – by 705 and 219 percent points respectively. The chart below, courtesy of Masterforex-V Academy, reflects the current state of affairs in the market of USDILS:
By the way, instantly after the agreement was singed, energy markets responded with price declines. When the prices fall, this usually becomes a major stimulus for an economic recovery in the USA and the EU.
Thirdly, it is about political confrontation. We must confess that the USA and Israel cannot boast friendship during Obama’s administration. However, the relations started changing for the worse before Obama came to power. In other words, Obama improved his image by signing the agreement.
