1. IGC report – August 1st 2013
According to the report, both the global consumption and production of wheat are growing by the same amount – 4 million tons.
2. Export.
The net sales (596,900 thousand tons) are 10% below last week’s figures and 36% below the 4-week average. The export is 627,400 thousand tons, which is 11% above last week’s figures.
3. Harvest conditions
Winter sorts – the harvesting campaign is 81% completed.
Spring sorts:
Good and Excellent – 68%, last week - 68%.
Poor and Very Poor – 6%, last week – 5%.
4. News and other factors
Egypt, the biggest importer of wheat in the world, bought over 1 million tons of wheat in July, mainly from Russia, Ukraine and Romania.
The European Commission increased its wheat production forecast up to 140,2 million tons. The latest forecast made by the USDA is 138,6 million tons.
5. Recommendations
The following factors are still pressing wheat prices:
Abundant harvests, aggressive exports ant low prices, favorable weather conditions, lower corn prices.
At the same time the prices are supported by higher demand coming from China, growing demand in Brazil, and possible supplies to Japan.
The chart below, courtesy of Commodity Trading Department of Masterforex-V Academy, reflects the current state of affairs in the market of wheat:
