These days it is difficult to surprise people. However, there are exceptions. In particular, Zbigniew Brzezinski, a Polish American political scientist, geostrategist and statesman, managed to surprise us.
Some 15 years ago, he used to diminish Russia’s role in the international arena, thereby calling it a defeated opponent of the West. This is not a long time in historical terms. However, Mr. Brzezinski seems to have changed his mind and attitude towards Russia and its geopolitical and economic role in the world.
In his recent book called “Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power” (2012), Zbigniew Brzezinski ponders upon the ways of uniting Russia and the West. Moreover, he tries to prove the inevitability of this process. He assumes that the world’s center of gravity is shifting “from the West to the East.” Therefore, the West will have to unite with Russia in order to avoid global isolation.
The West may well avoid the destiny of the frontrunner. However, it is necessary to work out a new strategy. The new strategy should imply the plan aimed at integrating Russia and Turkey into the international system of the West. This sounds strange if to consider the fact that this was told by a Russophobe and a Pole. This looks like a major change in his views. What are the real reasons behind his sudden love for Russia?
Brzezinski’s Motives
If you think that Brzezinski changed his mind and attitude towards Russia in the afternoon of his life, you are mistaken. He is still a strategist and an analyst, who can anticipate future events and law-governed processes as well as their results.
How does he reason his new strategic vision, which involves Russia? He says the West is about to face new challenges. Some of them may turn out to be rather dangerous.
Europe is in crisis. These are not just some minor and temporary difficulties. It is a deep systemic crisis. It affects everything, including, economy, politics, finances and even the European state system in general. Cyprus is done and other European nations may follow it.
Moreover, outside Europe, there are growing tensions in Eastern Asia and the Middle East. There is a threat of an ideological war between the USA and China.
America is in the doldrums. It needs a break. Brzezinski assumes that the USA can no longer dominate the world alone. There are other superpowers that dominate certain regions around the globe. However, the USA is still ambitious.
What does Russia have to do with all that? Brzezinski explains that the rise of any non-Western nation (as long as it is not a US ally) is viewed by US politicians as a potential threat. In other words, the USA is seriously concerned about China, Russia and their tighter bilateral relations.
Some experts say that Brzezinski actually offers Russia to ally against China. To be more exact, they say that the USA offers Russia to worsen its relations with China rather than improving them with the USA itself.
They say the USA is really afraid of China. Yet, it would be impossible to pin China down to the ground without Russia’s assistance. That is why Brzezinski wants to integrate Russia into the Euro-Atlantic alliance before there is a Russian-Chinese union.
How Can Russia Be Interested?
As far as Russia is concerned, it also needs to stay within a certain union to have allies. In this aspect, the options are limited.
First of all, Russia can be integrated into the western alliance. However, in this case it will be a tool rather than an ally. In fact, the USA and its allies offer Russia to become their shield protecting them from Asia.
The second option is to ally with China. Such an alliance would bring Russia decent geopolitical dividends. It is not accidental, that Western leaders got nervous after top-ranking Chinese official visited Russia.
The third option is to abstain from any integration and wait what happens next. By the way, Ukraine may well show an example of what may happen in this case.
The forth scenario is to create its own Euro-Asian union. Russia has everything to implement this plan. It is the 6th biggest economy in the world. Analysts expect it to turn into number 4th by 2020. Moreover, it has the best army in the region and abundant deposits of natural resources. Most ex-USSSR republics have close ties with Russia and may well become members of such a union.
Still, Brzezinski assumes that Russia will fail to create its own union as other ex-USSR states are get used to sovereignty. At the same time, he says that China will keep developing and consolidating its position, thereby threatening both the West and Russia. Therefore, Brzezinski concludes that the best option for Russia is to ally with the West, otherwise it will eventually yield to China.
Brzezinski is famous for continuously making his forecasts. However, very few of them have actually come true. This time Brzezinski and U.S. politicians want to use Russia in order to depress China.
