According to “The Diplomat" (Japan), "Hurriyet" (Turkey), "iDNES.cz" (Czech Republic) and some other editions, China will start World War III. It is not a coincidence when several pro-US editions in different parts around the globe write on the same topic. It is a trend.
Chinese analysts respond that this is the result of some conspiracy and hidden info war against China.
How aggressive are China’s intensions in reality? Who is interested in creating the image of an Asian aggressor? Market leader and experts will try to answer these questions…
Who Needs War With China?
On the face of it, if a Japanese journalist writes about a major war between China and the USA, it is Japan that is interested in giving the world to understand that the possibility of such a war is real. However the “Japanese” journalist has an Anlgo-Saxon surname, which suggests that it is the USA and Great Britain may be interested in spreading such a rumor as well.
Can Japan benefit from a war with China? According to Eugene Olkhovsky,’s leading expert, taking into account the current territorial dispute between Japan and China, we may conclude that the latter is a real pain in the *ss for the former.
There is too much information in the internet on the island dispute between China and Japan. So, we are not going to go into detail on the issue here. It is sufficient to say, that none of the parties wants to compromise and the confrontation keeps escalating.
China gave to understand that it is ready to apply force if necessary. Some experts say that Japan provokes China. Therefore, there will probably be no peaceful settlement of the conflict that was started in the 1970s.
Japan is unlikely to declare war against China. Officially, Japan abandoned the right to declare wars. It still has no full-fledged army, only Japan Self-Defense Forces, unified military forces that are essentially equal to the police. However, the Japanese may force China do apply force, thereby starting an armed conflict. Japan counts that in the worst-case scenario, the USA will take Japan’s side, especially as China’s economic and trade expansion worries the USA more and more.
What About China?
Chinese investments. Previously, Market Leader wrote how China is sort of “conquering” the world through investments. Over the last few years, Chinese investors have been focused on Europe and America. It is not just about investments. Sometimes, these are takeovers of major companies and corporations, especially in oil and natural gas sectors.
At the same time, the World Bank is working with the Renminbi (the Chinese Yuan) more actively, especially when it comes to emitting yuan-denominated bonds, thereby hinting at the possibility of switching from USD to RNB.
Hu Jintao’s statement that the US Dollar is a vestige of the past (in combination with these factors) does impress analysts and investors around the world.
The People’s Bank of China injected RNB365bn into capital markets in September (roughly equal to $58bn). This is the biggest inflow in the contemporary history of China.
The Chinese regulator wants to support the country’s banking system, to ensure liquidity and to help Chinese banks correspond to the latest reserve requirements set by the regulator.
The chart below, courtesy of , reflects the current state of affairs in the market of USDCNY. According to HY Markets, the Renminbi is currently weakening against the US Dollar.
Turkish Media: China Heads For North Pole
The North Pole is reported to become another focus of interest for China. According to Hurriyet, the Chinese are trying to consolidate their position in the North Pole in order to gain control over the strategic deposits of energy sources.
Unlike the USA, Canada, Russia and Norway, China doesn’t have its own territory in the North Pole. Hover, China keeps conducting research and participating in foreign programs. In particular, China and Denmark are discussing the possibility of developing Greenland deposits of precious metals together. China is determined to create its own icebreaker fleet and is getting ready for the 5th Arctic expedition.
BRICS. There is no doubt that China plays first fiddle among the BRICS nations. China is a superpower in the Asian region. It keeps gaining military and economic power.
Difficulties. Strange as it may seem, despite being an overpopulated country, China is reported to face a deficit of working power in industrial areas. The quality of living improves, workers become more qualified and demand higher salaries. As a result, the labor power becomes more expensive and some Western manufacturers have to curtail production.
USA vs China: War Possible?
Experts say that there are 2 major aspects that can theoretically lead to a conflict between the USA and China:
The first one is China’s regional policy. The disputed islands are the very pretext Japan is trying to use in order to get the USA involved in the dispute. China keeps resisting the USA over the situation in Syria. Hilary Clinton’s latest official trip to China failed as China gave the USA to understand that it was not going to change its stance.
The second aspect is the North Pole. The situation around the North Pole is gradually escalating into something like a cold war.
However, the major issue the experts are focused on is the possibility of an armed conflict between the 2 superpowers. Most of them are sure that the probability is very low.
Firstly, the USA doesn’t wage wars with strong enemies. Even during WWII, Japan wasn’t a strong enemy while Germany had already been weakened by the time the USA and its Allies opened a second front.
Secondly, if there is another major war, it is unlikely to start form a conflict of major powers.
Thirdly, the USA is more powerful than Russia or China but won’t be able to beat them alone, without allies. As we can see, Japan is not going to start an armed conflict against China. Even if the dispute between Japan and China escalates into an armed conflict, nobody can guarantee that the USA will get involved in it.
At the same time, it is very difficult to image the situation when China becomes an aggressor.
Therefore, most experts conclude that the rumor about a possible war between the USA and China is nothing but an instance of sophisticated political technology and a weapon of info war.
