The USA has started harvesting campaign of soybeans. As of September 17, 10% has been gathered, which is 6% higher than the 5-year average.
Latest report of USDA was published on September 12; however, the figures have remained almost unchanged, as stated by the Market Leader.
World production has amounted to 258 mmt, which is 2.3 mmt less than last month, but 8% more than last season. It has been changed mostly because of the USA, where production has dropped by 1.5 mmt because of drought. Speaking about South America, the general forecast for Argentina and Brazil amounts to 136 mmt. The forecast has risen because of the increase of crop area (in Argentina to 19.7 ha, in Brazil to 27.5 ha).
World export has slightly changed, having amounted to 93.7 mmt. Thus, in the SA it has dropped by 1.5 mmt, whereas in Brazil it has risen by 1.5 mmt.
- import has remained unchanged, amounting to 91.7 mmt.
- demand remained at last week’s level, amounting to 256.7 mmt.
The situation with ending stocks of soy is difficult, although they have remained almost unchanged, namely at the point of 53.1 mmt, which is the lowest point in 9 years.
Therefore, according to the Analytics Team of Commodity Trading Department of , correction to uptrend is most likely to be expected in mid-term:
