Last week the price of cocoa future for June remained within the narrow range of 2280-2350. After the price drop, caused by the statement made of the government of Ghana concerning possible lack of 71 t.t. of cocoa at storages, the price failed to get over 2350.
Fundamental factors for the nearest future include the following:
- good forecast for intermediate crop in West Africa,
- prediction of sufficient precipitation for the nearest 10 days,
- cocoa processing during the 1st quarter of 2012 was lower than last year,
- cocoa stocks at stock ICE exchange storages remain above 5-year level.
According to Commodity Trading Department of , by the end of June future price may drop. Seasonal trend gives another proof to such price development. Demand-supply analysis for next year shows that there may form balance or minor deficit. What is more, in such circumstances price development usually coincides with seasonal trend.
