Ivan Zhigalov
The relations between Russia and the US have recently deteriorated. They haven’t been so tense since the USSR times.
Some analysts start anticipating a new cold war, saying there are many reasons for that, including the anti-missile defense issue. Washington wants to deploy its anti-missile shield in some countries of Eastern Europe despite Moscow’s objections. In their turn, the Russian authorities are going to deploy their own “Iskander” missile systems in Kaliningrad region.
Russian and American mass media only add fuel to the fire by scaring people and searching endless sensations. One of the recent “bombs” that has exploded in the battlefield of this info war is the news that the Kremlin may deny the transportation of US military cargos through the Russian territory. If Pakistan does the same, the NATO coalition in Afghanistan will face multiple problems, including supply problems.
The Wall Street Journal: Russia Considers Blocking NATO Supply Routes
On Nov 28th 2011 The Wall Street Journal told the world about the existing problem in the article called “Russia Considers Blocking NATO Supply Routes”
Last Monday Dmitry Rogozin, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to NATO, announced that Russia “may not let NATO use its territory to supply troops in Afghanistan if the alliance doesn't seriously consider its objections to a U.S.-led missile shield for Europe”.
According to Alan Cullison, “Threats to the NATO supply line through Russia come at an awkward time for the alliance. NATO has become increasingly reliant on the Russian route as problems in Pakistan—its primary supply route—have escalated. Over the weekend, Pakistan closed its border to trucks delivering supplies in response to coalition airstrikes Saturday that killed 25 Pakistani soldiers.”
Pakistan Offers Russia To Punish USA
A far more interesting article on the matter was published by The News International (Pakistan). The article is called “Analysts say Russia could deliver deathblow to Nato”. It says that “With the Russian threat to cut land routes for supply to Nato troops in Afghanistan, the Afghan battleground may turn into a cold deathtrap for Nato”.
The article also quotes Lieutenant General Hameed Gul: “Americans and Nato troops have been strangled in Afghanistan and time has come for Pakistan to avail the opportunity that it missed on 9/11 to regain the respect and sovereignty… Now Nato troops will have to exit Vietnam style, and that too by using Pakistan’s airspace because Iran will never let USA use its airspace.”
According to Maria Sultan, another Pakistani expert in defense said that a Russian-Pakistani blockade would mean a cold death for the NATO troops in Afghanistan: “They will literally be strangled in Afghanistan with 90,000 troops and as they admit that they have reserves for three months which actually means they have reserves for two months and then Nato will have to airlift the troops and during the airlift only 15 to 20 percent can be alive out of the 90,000 troops”.
Can Russia Help USA Withdraw From Afghanistan?
On Dec 1st 2011 The New York Times published an article by Dov Zakheim called “Can Russia Help Us Withdraw From Afghanistan?” The article tells us about the importance of the Russia-US relations.
The US authorities acknowledge that the USA’s tensions with Pakistan have been escalating since the elimination of Osama bin Laden in May 2011. So, the author offers a way out: “Instead of relying heavily on Pakistan as a supply corridor, the United States should expand its cooperation with Russia, which has been playing an increasingly important role in military transit to and from Afghanistan. This would serve as both a hedge and a warning to the generals who control Pakistan”.
American military experts admit that the Northern route to Afghanistan through Russia is safer, more economical and strategically important. Moreover, it could be the ideal route to withdraw the NATO troops from Afghanistan. Dov Zakheim assumes that Russia should be a strategic partner in the region.
Why Won’t Russia Join Pakistan to Block NATO in Afghanistan?
Moscow understands that Pakistan is probably going to make a cat’s paw of Russia. Americans do not want to negotiate with Pakistan. So, Russia is definitely going to benefit from it. Russia’s supply routes to Afghanistan will probably be the major reason for reloading tense Russia-US relations. This is the major trump card up Russia’s sleeve. The Kremlin is not going to get rid of it just because Islamabad wants revenge.
Russia should be interested in letting the US (and NATO) troops stay in Afghanistan as longer as possible. Firstly, they will become weaker. Secondly, they are in sight. Thirdly, they will be solving the Taliban problem for Russia. These are the reasons to help the NATO troops in Afghanistan.
While the US contingent is still in Afghanistan and Iraq, it threatens Iran and Syria. Consequently, Russia may act as a diplomat and negotiator for these countries, thus earning political dividends for itself.
Moreover, if Russia joins Pakistan it will probably spoil its ties with India, a major ally, a BRICS fellow-member and the biggest consumer of Russian exports.
And finally, If Russia does join Pakistan to block the NATO troops in Afghanistan, the US may well find another (costlier) supply route: Turkey – Georgia - Azerbaijan – Turkmenistan.
Market Leader and would appreciate if you could participate in a survey. Please, visit the Academy’s forum for traders and investors and answer the following question:
Will Russia join Pakistan to cut off the supply routes for the US and NATO?
Ivan Zhigalov
