Exchange news. ICO has lowered its forecast for the current yielding year to 127.4 mln. bags (in October the predicted yield amounted to 129.5 mln. bags) due to non-favourable climate conditions. Predicted yield in Columbia has dropped by 5.9% in comparison to October forecast because of the same reason.
Climate phenomenon La Niña may last from December 2011 till March 2012, worsening coffee production in Columbia. The situation in Brazil is very much alike – last October 3.49 mln. bags were produced, and last November – 3.18 mln. bags. However, this year the volume is smaller, namely, 3.09 mln. bags in October, and only 3 mln. bags of coffee is predicted for November.
It is not recommended to sell strangles in the range of 220 – 250 because of the generally rising tendency. Besides, VSA methods show that since the beginning of November the volume is increasing in uptrend and declining in downtrend. This proves that professional market players support coffee rise.
It is recommended to sell puts at the strike below 200 in the condition of strong purchase.
