According to The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR,) there is a 50% probability of Great Britain falling into recession. If the Greek crisis continues, the probability will increase up to 70%.
The economists downgraded the forecast for the country’s economic growth from 2% down to 0.9%. They say that in the first part of 2012 the UK GDP will keep slowing down and will finally reach stagnation.
They also downgraded their forecast for the global economic growth from 4.5% down to 4%. Yet this is not the limit. The eurozone crisis may cause further cuts in the forecast.
In the meantime, GBPUSD keeps rallying according to the scenario given in the outlook for Oct 4th2011.
According to the Department of Masterforex-V trading System, the rally is expected to keep forming the bullish upswing (sub-wave C) inside the mid-term upswing A/B. The MF pivot 1.6153 and the high 1.6165 will be the main levels of resistance.A break above 1.5875 will create a full-grown downward FZR if there is a downswing (wave A) and a break below the MF pivot 1.5979.
