Libya: the country is regarded as a place for investments

News of Africa, Libya. On September 1^st a meeting of the “Friends of Libya” was held in Paris. This name is now commonly referred to the leaders of the states, who have supported Libyan rebels and who have headed the National Council of Libya. First of all, this concerns the President of France Nicolas Sarkozy, the Prime Ministers of Great Britain David Cameron and Italy Silvio Berlusconi.

However, Paris summit appeared even more representative, as it was visited by the authorized representatives of many countries, including even those that had not been among rebels’ supporters. In general, the meeting was visited by representatives of 63 countries. The reason for such boom was the actual recognition of armed opposition victory and, accordingly, reaction to the news about the fall of Kadafi regime. It is for this reason that the number of the “Friends of Libya” started growing at an exponential rate.

How and when was the conference prepared?

In twentieth of August Nicolas Sarkozy had a meeting with the Prime Minister of the National Council of Libya Mahmoud Jibril in French capital. Sarkozy claimed to be ready to call a large international conference, devoted to the discussion of this North African country’s future. The matter was agreed with British Premier.
1. Participants. The meeting was supposed to be visited by the members of Libyan contact group (USA, France, Great Britain, Italy, Germany, and Turkey), representatives of China, Russia, and India were also invited.
2. Summit program. First of all, the questions of rebels’ financing were to be discussed at the meeting.
- On the eve of the meeting, senior officials of contact group in Doha were discussing the question about providing urgent humanitarian aid to the National Council of Libya. The sum of money that was discussed during those days amounted to 2.5 billion dollars.
- On August 24, at the suggestion of the USA, UN Security Council discussed the possibility  of unblocking the “frozen” means in order to help Libyan opposition. The RSA was against. Moreover, United Arabic Emirates announced that they were ready to unfreeze 500-700 million “Libyan” dollars, which they keep, but they need the UNO permission to do this.
- Assigning means for new Libya was supposed to become the key question of upcoming summit in Paris.
3. Atmosphere in Libya. While the question about holding the meeting of the “Friends of Libya” was being discussed, fights did not ease in the country itself. Therefore, at that moment there were no grounds to suppose that by the beginning of September more topical issues than sponsor aid may arise.

Recognition parade: which countries recognized new government?

On the day of Parisian summit about 60 states recognized the National Transitional Council of Libya as Libyan only lawful government.
• France, Italy, and Qatar were the first to recognize the authority of rebels’ council already in April 2011;
• its representative organ was recognized by the USA, Great Britain in July (when opposition started new large-scale attack), and in a few-days time by Maldives, Gambia, Bulgaria, and Croatia.
• the League of Arab States, Egypt, and some other African countries recognized the National Transitional Council in late twentieth of August (after the fall of Tripoli);
• other countries recognized Libyan winners as a lawful-government only on September 01. Russia was among these countries. Up to this day, China remains the only member of UNSF that has not supported the general spirit.
• the President of the Republic of South-Africa Jacob Zuma absolutely refuses to recognize the rebels’ right to power in Libya.

Presents from “friends” to “new” Libya

During the summit, as admitted by the experts of Forex Academy and Masterforex-V Stock Exchange and Futures Trade, it was promised to unfreeze about 110 billion dollars, which belongs to Libyan people and are kept at bank accounts worldwide:

The decision to unfreeze 15 billion dollars from Libyan accounts to restore the flow of oil and gas to the West can be called one of the first real steps.
- Great Britain has unfrozen 140 million pounds sterling;
- France is asking a permission from the UNO to unfreeze one fifth of Libyan assets that are kept in its banks (7.6 billion Euro);
- the USA has made a claim to transfer 1.5 billion dollars that belongs to Libya to the opposition;
- Italy returns 500 million Euro to Libyan new management;
- Germany, Austria, and Belgium are also planning to unblock Libyan accounts.
The actual permission of western countries to liquidate colonel Kadafi became one of the main outcomes of the conference. The allies do not necessarily insist on trial over the dictator. Rebels, in their turn, have long ago quit hiding their intentions to shoot the country’s former leader in case that he is caught.

Sharing Libyan pie: what are the interests of investors in Libya?

Some experts suppose that the allies have long ago sold “the skin of a bear before catching him”, and the share of every member of the concession depended on how quickly and firmly he joins the war against Kadafi regime, as explained by the analytics of ICM Brokers. And there definitely was what to fight for. The stocks of Libyan oil currently amount to 29.5 billion barrels, and the deposits of natural gas – to about 1.6 trillion cubic meters:
1. French share. In French press (for example, in Liberation) there have recently appeared claims that the rebels’ council on March 17, even before NATO military operation, had promised to give Paris 35% of all oil that is recovered in the country. As far as it is known, it was Sarkozy who became one of the main initiators of western intervention into Libyan conflict, and French air military forces have directed one third of all attacks on the bases of loyal Kadafi troops. “I am not aware of these 35%, but if there existed such agreement, we would have been aware of it”, stated the Chairman of the Board of Directors if Total SA Christophe de Margerie to the journalists. At the same time he assured that the negotiations about the future of oil contracts are being held.
2. British interest. On August 26 the Daily Telegraph announced that the countries involved in military operation against Kadafi would definitely gain benefit when the new government would start signing contracts on holding recovery works. While giving a speech at Parisian summit on September 01, British Premier Cameron gave a strong hint to his allies that London interests can in no way be infringed.
3. Italian claims. Already at the end of August Italian Premier Silvio Berlusconi announced about his idea of “Libya after Kadafi” and warned that he would protect the interest of Italian energy producing company ENI. At the beginning of the week Italian company ENI signed an agreement with National Transitional Council about close cooperation in energetic sphere. The company has already sent a group of its workers to Libya in order to restore oil recovery at the west of the country.
4. Shares of British Petroleum, French Total, and Italian Eni have considerably risen as soon as rebels occupied Tripoli.
5. American perspectives. Washington, which was a little late to the share of “Libyan pie”, is vigorously making up for leeway. The next meeting of the “Friends of Libya” is supposed to be held at the end of September on the US territory, and it is very likely that the White House will take care of its own preferences at Libyan market.
6. Contracts on the country’s recovery, destroyed or demolished during the wartime deposits, oil pipelines, infrastructure, provision, and industry are assessed into tens of billions of dollars. And, what is most interesting, this money, so-called “Kadafi means” is already kept in foreign banks, it only has to be unblocked and disbursed, which is evidently to be done at the permission of new lawful Libyan government. And it will spare no expenses to its benefactors. Mustafa Abdel Jalil said that Libyans are to be ready to pay for the “allegiance” that is shown by the world community.
7. Losers in this situation included China, Russia, RSA, and Algeria, which have either supported NATO vaguely, or even defended Kadafi. It is now referred to the countries that used to have large contracts on the territory of the country. Now the future of former agreements remains very uncertain. It seems that rebels themselves have not yet made a decision whether to break the previous ties or not. “We are not considering the question of annulling any contracts”, says a rebels’ representative Ahmed Jehani. However, at the same time an unknown source from the national Council has made a firm claim to the journalists: “There are several countries that will have to respond for their help to Kadafi to kill thousands of people”. Maybe, new “Friends of Libya” will soon help the new government of the country to make up such list.

The Editorial Board of “Market Leader” magazine, jointly with experts of Forex Academy and Masterforex-V Futures Trade and Stock Exchange, holds a questionnaire in Forex forum: in your opinion, shall a big redivision at Libyan market be expected?
• yes, this is inevitable. Winners will share the trophies;
• no, there will be redivision, but minor, everything is for Libyan people.