Stock exchange news. The situation at orange juice market can be estimated from the last report of US Ministry of Agriculture, which unfortunately is issued for this product only in January and July. Besides, the production forecast for the next 2011/2012 season was not represented in the last (July) report.
Nevertheless, the market condition can be more or less characterized by current data. Thus: the production has been reconsidered in comparison with January towards rising and amounts to 2.313 mln. metric tones, which is by 118 ths. more than it was declared in January and almost by 400 ths. more in comparison with the previous season. Import has slightly increased – from 1.346 in January to 1.351 in July, whereas export has also increased from 1.473 to 1.565 mln. tons.
Consumption remained almost the same – 2.099 in January and 2.060 in July. Transit stocks have been reconsidered towards rising – 441 in January and 494 ths. tons in July.
In other words, such figures speak about the bear trend at the market. Besides, there appear data that current weather conditions (hurricane in the USA in particular) have not drastically harmed the crop. Since September a seasonal flat trend of price rise is being observed. This trend is connected with the beginning of the plant crop.
However, taking into consideration sufficient production during this season, it can be predicted that the potential of upward trend is not very high. Technically, the current situation does not allow to make an unambiguous forecast. There is a likelihood that the market will not test level 150 again and will move upwards, following the seasonal trend. There is an option of breaking level 150 and moving from level 140. One way or another, the situation needs monitoring
