After yesterday’s report published by the USDA the price in the market of soybeans made a sharp upswing and reached the level of $ 13.49 per bushel. But it failed to consolidate around the level and dropped 24 cents down. The USDA’s report says that the US production of soybeans is expected to decline from 87.77 down to 83,168 mmt due to shorter sown areas and less substantial yield.
The future US inventories are estimated at 4,22 mmt, which is 0.5 mmt less than reported in July’s forecast. The US export of soybeans is reduced by 2.6 mtt. The global decline in the production of soybeans is expected to reach 3,98 mtt. The production forecasts for Brazil and China were also reconsidered - 73, 5 instead of 72,5 mmt and 14 instead of 14,3 mmt correspondingly.
The global reserves are expected to decline by 1 mmt, mainly at the expense of the US, China, and Brazil.
According the Department of Commodity Trading, , despite the negative data on the US production, in general the report look neutral. First of all the prices may be pressed by South Africa as it is going to increase its export by 2 mmt. Moreover, in a couple of weeks the soybean producers in the Northern hemisphere will start a harvesting campaign, which will also be pressing the market.
In near-term perspective, the price will probably stay flattish and moving in the price range between $12,5-14/ bushel.
