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S&P500: volatility analysis

S&P500: volatility analysis



During the recent weeks the futures of S&P500 moved in the price range between 1252.25 (200-day MA close to the option barrier 1250) and 1293.75 (close to the option barrier 1300). The uncertainty about the further movement direction can be explained through the unstable economic and political situation in the USA: the possibility of default is increasing; a range of rating agencies promise to downgrade the U.S. credit rating if the debt ceiling is not lifted. Even though most market participants do not believe in this scenario, the overall optimism has recently been changed with reasonable caution. In addition to the lower border of the range the closest support levels are 1241.25 (the local low) and 1200 (an option barrier). If there is a rally the price may encounter resistance around the 50-day MA, at 1347.75 (the local high), 1350 (an option barrier), 1373.5 (the high of the year) and 1400 (another option barrier).




The growing uncertainty seen in the market increased the level of expected volatility even though during the last week it was slightly lower than a week before. The value of VIX indicator fluctuated between 23.0 and 17.72 pts. The actual volatility of S&P500 was relatively low due to the flattish movement: the weekly range was 37.5 futures points. Friday was the day of the highest volatility (24.75pts). The lowest level of volatility was seen on Wednesday (14.25pts).



This week’s economic calendar:



This week is not so rich in significant news releases. Those option traders who trade volatility should pay attention to Unemployment Claims (June 30th) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (July 1st). During these news releases the volatility of S&P500 will probably grow.
Provided by the Department of Options, Masterforex-V Academy




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Text: Elena Izotova
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