Alex von Stachelkopf
The US President Barack Obama has managed to surprise the entire world once again. Everyone has already got used to his abrupt and unexpected political steps. However, most political scientists and economists thought that he was trying to conceal his real (and rather conservative) intentions behind the smoke screen of fine words.
However during his speech on the US external policy concerning the Middle East and North Africa, he said that the real border between Palestine and Israel was the one that existed before the 1967 Middle East war. "We believe the borders of Israel and Palestine should be based on the 1967 lines with mutually agreed swaps, so that secure and recognized borders are established for both states," Obama said. The statement was a sensation: the entire world saw the superpower betrayed its ally in the Middle East.
Why does the US President need it for?
According to the Israeli Association of traders and Investors under :
· President Obama, who is a Nobel prize winner, probably decided to become the one who managed to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict. He is not the first US President to try to solve the conflict: Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and even George Bush Jr. tried to do the same. However, their actions only escalated the conflict.
· Moreover, according to the Association’s experts, the Middle East won’t ever see any peace until there is an Israeli state in any form. The Arab neighbors will always have some claims. That is why the US Army will always have a pretext for staying in the Middle East (supposedly for maintaining peace and democracy in the region).
· By reducing or expanding its financial (and military) aid to Israel, Washington will have a trump card in the dispute with oil countries and the entire Arab world.
· Now the Arab leaders won’t have a formal pretext for raising crude oil prices sky-high because Obama has done them a favor by reproving their enemy number 1 (Israel).
· Probably this is a part of the carrot-and-stick policy (i.e. the mentioned step is the carrot given to the Muslim world, which is fulminating against the elimination of Osama bin Laden and war against Kaddafi’s regime)
· Now after a series of colored revolutions in the Arab East (Egypt, Tunis… Syria is next) the newly formed governments desperately need money. So, now the US Department of State has a chance to provide itself with more “tame” regimes that the friendly but frequently independent Israel. Obama assumes that the current situation is favorable for resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict. We can consider a lot of versions but the real reason is probably known only to President Obama and high-ranking US officials.
What was the reaction to Obama’s statement around the world?
1. The EU supported Obama
2. Russia did the same.
3. China withheld comments as usual
4. Israel is disappointed and irritated. Why do the Israeli feel betrayed?
· Previously Israel abandoned some captured territories in return for the US support and guarantees that the concession would be the last one.
· In 2004 the Congress adopted a resolution saying that the pre-1967 borders could leave Israel vulnerable with some part of the Israeli population living on the territory of another state. However, Obama’s Administration probably doesn’t care.
· The US promised Israel that after leaving Gaza the Western bank of the Jordan River would remain Israel’s territory.
· George Bush Jr. swore to his Israeli counterpart that the restoration of the pre-1967 borders was impossible. Now it looks like another lie.
5. The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu opposed Obama’s statement. At the continuous press conference, which followed Obama’s speech, Netanyahu explained the reasons why Israel couldn’t get back to the mentioned borders. This is probably the first time when the leader of the Israeli people openly opposes the decision made by Israel’s “Elder Brother”.
6. Common Israeli look determined and are not going to let it happen.
7. Strange as it may seem, but Palestine showed a rather reserved reaction to the US President’s statement. Common Palestinians didn’t arrange any celebration.
8. The Hamas representatives negatively reacted to the event, calling it an effort to throw dust in their eyes.
9. The most interesting thing is that the US president didn’t say a word about what would happen if Israel didn’t obey. Now it will be interesting to watch Obama and his Democrat supporters opposing the Republican majority of the Congress and the influential Jewish lobby (in politics, finances and mass media) in effort to gain their point.
What impact may the event have on the Israeli economy and its national currency (the Israeli Shekel)?
According to the Department of studying Masterforex-V trading system , ILS/USD has found support at the 50% retracement (0,2818) and is currently being traded around 0,2873. The given bearish wave may turn out to be wave b (C ) of Weekly inside the current long-term uptrend. It is highly probable that the next resistance level will be the historical high located at 0,2969.
Otherwise, a bearish FZR and a break below the MF pivot and sloping channel will prompt the end of the bullish ABC pattern and the initiation of a bearish wave of a bigger timeframe.
Market Leader and offer you to participate in a survey. Just visit the Academy’s forum for traders and investors and answer the following question:
What does Obama’s statement really mean?
· Obama is planning to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict
· The USA will lose the ally in the Middle East while showing weakness to the Muslim world and not getting what they want
· This is a “cute trick” with Israel being involved in the game (playing on the American side).
Alex von Stachelkopf
