Alex Bobrov
Against the background of the military crisis in Libya, the environmental disaster in Japan and the continuous mass unrest in the Middle East the world community doesn’t notice how Côte d'Ivoire, a small country in the West of Africa, is gradually falling in to the abyss of civil war. The country has been suffering from violence for a couple of months. However, neither the UN, nor the “fair” US and France are in a hurry to stop the bloody chaos in Côte d'Ivoire, even though the situation in the country resembles the one in Libya.
The bloody events in Côte d'Ivoire: What did it all started from?
According to the Arab Association of Traders and Investors under , there are some differences between the Arab revolutions and the events in Côte d'Ivoire. For example, in Côte d'Ivoire everything started from presidential elections, like the so-called “colored revolutions” usually start:
1. In November 2010 there was the 2nd round of presidential elections in Côte d'Ivoire. Alhassan Wattara, an opposing candidate, won the elections.
2. Loran Gbagbo, which was an incumbent president at that time, nulled the elections and refused to hand over power to his rival. So now there seems to be 2 presidents: a newly-elected president and an incumbent one. The former is supported mainly by the Christian population while the latter is supported by the Muslims. Each of them has a huge army of supporters.
3. The UN and the global community acknowledged the legitimacy of the election results. The local population instantly started mass protests.
4. Loran Gbagbo ordered the police and army to use force against the protesters, including heavy arms.
5. Like in Libya, the protesters quickly armed themselves and gained control over some provinces of the small country.
6. The bloodiest events started in March 2011 when the troops supporting the newly-elected president came close to Abidjan, the capital of Côte d'Ivoire. It is reported that the opposing forces control ¾ of the country’s territory.
Why can the situation in Côte d'Ivoire be called a humanitarian disaster?
· As the result of military clashes almost 500 people died.
· About 500.000 people became refugees
· The country’s hospitals are closed as there is no personnel. The “Doctors Without Borders” say the situation is terrible. The urge the specialists and humanitarian organizations from around the world to come and help the victims of the civil war in Côte d'Ivoire.
· Everyone fears that further struggle will bring much more casualties and deaths.
· The country is running out of food and water. The population may face famine.
· The events in Côte d'Ivoire resemble the situation in Kosovo and Libya, where the “international community” represented by the NATO, applied force in order to prevent the humanitarian disaster from being aggravated. The difference is that in Kosovo and Libya it was the pro-American “opposition” who won the war, unlike the current situation in Côte d'Ivoire.
So what steps are taken by the international community?
As opposed to the Libyan campaign, when the decisions were quick, nobody wants to take responsibility for what is happening in Côte d'Ivoire:
1. The UN urged the international community to provide financial aid for Côte d'Ivoire in order to help it survive the humanitarian disaster
2. The UN asked the donor countries for $32M in order to stabilize the situation in Côte d'Ivoire. However, by now it has got only $4M.
3. In order to buy the required amount of food for the country’s population the UN needs $16M. For comparison sake, this is exactly how much 16 “Tomahawk” missiles cost. Yet the Allied Forces strike Libya with such missiles every day.
4. France and Nigeria introduced to the UN a resolution on the situation in Côte d'Ivoire. Its content is kept secret. But it is said to be aimed against the current president Loran Gbagbo. The main requirement of the resolution is to stop violence in the country.
5. The UN hurried to blame Belarus for helping Loran Gbagbo by providing military helicopters. Probably they wanted to connect the 2 disliked leaders. However later they had to admit their mistake and officially apologized to Minsk.
6. Paris urged the UN to interfere with the situation immediately, especially as there are some 10000 peacemakers in the country.
7. France is obviously interested in stopping the bloodshed in Côte d'Ivoire. Nikolas Sarkozy well may send the Frech Air Forces to Côte d'Ivoire to help the opposing forces.
8. Washington seems indifferent towards what is happening in Côte d'Ivoire. The US is already involved in 3 wars. Moreover, there is no crude oil in Côte d'Ivoire.
Why has France been so active so far?
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· Firstly, in 2012 France will hold presidential elections. According to numerous opinion polls, Nicolas Sarkozy is unlikely to be reelected. So he is trying to improve his rating.
· Secondly, Côte d'Ivoire is a former French colony and a real area of influence.
· It is the place where the French built their space launching site
· Some units of the Foreign Legion are located in the country. So they may seriously influence the internal political situation.
· Côte d'Ivoire is the world’s leader in chocolate production and the world’s 3rd biggest producer of coffee. Obviously the main share of the business belongs to French companies.
· In 2003-2007 there was a civil war in Côte d'Ivoire between the Christian North and the Muslim South. Them France supported Loran Gbagbo. This time it is going to support the opposing side.
You can participate in our survey at the forum for traders for and investors by answering the following question:
Will Nikola Sarkozy insist on conducting a military campaign in Côte d'Ivoire?
· It depends on the further succession of events in Libya
· It depends on the further succession of events in Côte d'Ivoire
· Of course, he will. He obviously thinks he is the main “democratisator”.
· No he won’t. France has much more serious problems to solve.
Alex Bobrov
