Yuriy Ukazkin
⬤ USD/JPY is currently trading around the 157 level after breaking above it and now working to hold its ground. The pair has been testing this zone repeatedly—initially struggling to get through, then finally pushing past and now consolidating just above the breakout point.
⬤ Looking at the recent price movement, there's been a solid recovery from the lower 152 area, followed by a steady climb into the 157 zone. The next resistance levels to watch are around 157.45-157.50, then 158.00, and 158.15-158.20. Short-term moving averages are pointing upward as price hovers near the breakout, suggesting the market is trying to build acceptance above this resistance rather than immediately rejecting it. That said, conviction remains shaky with a major political event in Japan on the horizon.
⬤ The near-term outlook carries significant binary risk tied to Japanese political outcomes. A clear majority result could open the door for policy easing—typically associated with yen weakness. On the flip side, if no majority is secured, the yen could strengthen quickly. If the breakout above 157 fails to hold, potential downside targets include 156.80, 156.65-156.70, and the 156.50 region based on visible support levels.
⬤ This matters because USD/JPY tends to react sharply to shifts in policy expectations and potential official intervention. Further yen weakness could increase the chances of Japanese authorities stepping in, while strengthening could shift broader currency sentiment. With price sitting at a major technical level and facing event-driven uncertainty, short-term volatility across FX markets may stay elevated.
Yuriy Ukazkin
