Experts of IMF suppose that this year drop of Ukrainian economy will amount to 9%. This is stated in official overview of the organization. World economic outlook, published in mid spring, expected Ukrainian GDP to drop to no more than 6%, and already next year this factor was supposed to increase by 2%.
According IMF, negative influence of the war conflict has appeared more serious than predicted. Besides, IMF expects inflation rate to amount to 46% by the end of the year. At the same time, experts of the fund point to the fact that last months have shown some signs of a start of stabilization in the country’s economy.
What is more, exchange market is also stated to show certain stability. Monetary reserves of Ukraine are still rather small, but they have slightly risen, having thus amounted to 9.6 bln. dollars at the end the month before last.
It has also been informed that in the nearest future a mission of this financial organization will continue negotiations with Ukrainian government in order to prepare a final agreement.
Inter alia, it has been stated that IMF has held constructive polemics with the government concerning measures, needed for correction of the program within the framework of EFF. Common ground has been reached for the most part of thesis, so discussion will continue in future in order to prepare a final variant of agreement, oriented to approval of management of the fund.
The release admits that all requirements to effectiveness, which were supposed to be achieved by the end of March, have generally been realized, and all thesis, which were supposed to be fulfilled by the end of spring, are being implemented, although some points were realized slower than expected.
Real Estate in Ukraine Falls Down in Price
In Ukrainian capital real estate market continues falling. It is known that only 533 appartments were sold last month; herein 258 were realized in new constructions, and 275 – in old houses. This information was made public by SV Development company. One month earlier sales of housing amounted to over 600 appartments.
Along with this, there is considerable drop in cost of secondary housing. Last month the price of 1 square meter in public housing dropped by 11%. About the same decline was recorded during the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. Interesting is the fact that major drop in value of real estate is characteristic for Shevchenko region of Kyiv – here cost has decreased by 15.5%-18% depending on size of the house. At the same time, most stable prices have proved to be in Desniansky region, here appartments have dropped in value by up to 9%.
However, the general tendency of supply being much higher than demand remains. Last month the number of corresponding ads has increased by about two thirds. Quantitatively, secondary market currently offers 90 ths. appartments for sale. Though, analysts highlight that the market has generally stabilized in comparison to what was recorded in March. Then, due to collapse of hryvnia, many sellers canceled deals, preferring to wait out instability. Now, when hryvnia looks more or less stable, they have put up their appartment for sale, having slightly lowered their price.
It is known that last year secondary housing was hard to find by the price below 1 ths. dollars per square meter; this spring such offers have amounted to about 10% of the general number. At the same time, most analysts suppose that the cost of secondary housing has already reached its minimal point.
The only thing that can reduce the cost of secondary housing is less corrupt pressure on prices for erection of new houses. If this happens, new housing will become 10-15% cheaper. This, in its turn, will also bring about drop in price of old housing stock.
Last month cost of housing in Kharkov has dropped by one dollar, whereas in the capital it has dropped by two. Weighted average price of appartment at the market of secondary housing in Kyiv has decreased by 0.17% (2 dollars) to 1,194 dollars per square meter, as informed in SV Development.
The company has announced results for last month. According to the released overview, the weighted average price of a used appartment in Kharkov has amounted to 701 dollar per square meter. The most expensive appartments are situated in Dzerzhinsky region – their weighted average price amounts to 991 dollar, and the most democratic prices have been registered in Chernozavodsk region – there one can buy an appartment for 567 dollars per square meter. One year earlier the average price of a square meter in Kharkov appartment amounted to 804 dollars.
In Ukrainian capital the most available housing is situated in Darnytsia region, where the average price of a square meter amounts to 952 dollars; the most expensive housing, as before, is in Pechersk region (here 1,801 dollar is charged for 1 square meter).
In Donetsk weighted average price has amounted to about 754 dollars for a basic unit.
