The 2012 US presidential elections are round the corner. Barack Obama will represent the Democrats while Rick Perry, Governor of Texas, will be the Republican candidate.
The opponents have already been running their mobile election campaigns for a couple of weeks. The struggle is getting tenser. Barack Obama becomes a less evident frontrunner day by day. According to the latest opinion poll by The Washington Post and ABC News, Obama’s rating has declined down to the lowest level during his presidency.
What impact can the US presidential elections have on the global economy and what should investors get ready for?
Obama’s rating:
According to Evgeny Olkhovsky, Chief of the US-Canadian Association of Traders and Investors, , Obama’s rating hit the top during the first week of his presidency. He was supported by 69% of the US population. However, the rating has been declining since then:
1. The latest peak of his popularity was seen in May 2011. It was connected with the elimination of the world’s number one terrorist Osama bin Laden. At that time President Obama was supported by 53% of the Americans.
2. The US managed to avoid a technical default. But the prolonged talks between Obama’s administration and the Congress on the US debt ceiling obviously damaged the President’s image.
3. On August 11th-13th Gallup interviewed 1500 Americans. According to the survey, only 39% support Obama while 54% do not approve his policies. His rating declined by 6% because week before the survey he was supported by 45% of the respondents.
4. The Washington Post and ABC News as well as NBC News and The Wall Street Journal held 2 other surveys. According to them, 53-52% of the respondents are dissatisfied with Obama’s policies while 42-43% of the respondents support him.
5. For any candidate the level of 49% is believed to be critical. That is why the 54% trust means that Obama is probably doomed to lose.
What do common Americans like and dislike about Obama’s policies?
According to the analytic team of NordFX, in the electorate sees the following strengths and weaknesses of Obama’s policies:
Negative:
· Over 60% of the US citizens are not satisfied with his economic policy.
· 62% of the Americans are not satisfied with how Obama’s administration combats the current level of unemployment, which is over 9%.
· Only 42% of the respondents say that Obama’s fight against the country’s budget deficit is a success.
· Only 25% of the Americans believe that Obama will manage to save the country.
· 80% are dissatisfied with the US political system
· According to CNN, 8 out of 10 respondents are sure that the recession will go on.
Positive:
62% of the US citizens appreciate the result of the current counterterrorist activities.
49% of the Americans approve Obama’s healthcare reforms.
Obama’s actions
At this point there are 2 major groups disappointed in Obama – the retired and the Republicans. As for the retired people, Obama should prove that he is a real defender of their interests, i.e. to fight for preserving social benefits, to look confident and determined, to reassure them.
The Republican electorate is mainly concentrated in Southern and Mid-Western states. That is why Obama started his mobile election campaign from visiting Iowa, Minnesota and Illinois. President Obama gave to understand that he would focus on criticizing the Republican majority of the US Congress for their political games (in connection with the federal debt limit disputes).
However, for most Americans Barack Obama has been the person realizing the so-called “American dream”. He is traditionally supported by 90% of the African Americans and the absolute majority of numerous national minorities. Moreover, there are many people in the US who would like to reelect the first African-American President of the USA. Obama’s external and counterterrorism policies are supported by most US citizens. Nevertheless, everything will depend on the economic situation as these days it is the major concern for common Americans.
USD index prospects:
According to the experts of , the forthcoming presidential elections won’t have a serious impact on the USD exchange rate. Nevertheless the Department of Masterforex-V trading system notes that the USD index futures has already broken above the MF sloping channel. The index will rally if it breaks above the MF pivot at 77,17. Once the price consolidates above the resistance level, it will get an opportunity to reach 79,31.
Otherwise (without a pivot break) the index will form a downswing – wave A inside the “Hound of the Baskervilles” pattern by Elder/MF.
Market Leader and would appreciate it if you could participate in a survey. Please, visit the Academy’s forum for traders and investors and answer the following question:
Will Barack Obama manage to change the situation in his favor and win the elections?
