Investors are getting increasingly worried over the possibility of a decline in the UK GDP this quarter.
Economists forecast that the GDP will decline by 0.3%, which will be the 3rd consecutive decline. If this is the case, the decline will suggest that the UK economy has fallen into recession. The last time the UK economy saw its GDP declining over 2 quarters in a row was in 1970. The ONS’s preliminary GDP report will be published on July 25th.
IHS Global Insight expects the British economy to start recovering in Q3 2012 and to continue doing that in Q4 2012. Nevertheless, the recovery won’t be easy as the economic activity in the country will be restrained by tough budget and tax policies as well as by consumption issues.
Ernst&Young ITEM Club also expects the British economy to start recovering later this year provided that British households start spending more. The financial support coming from the Olympic games will be reserved.
Forex.
According to , the British Pound has suspended its downtrend against the US Dollar. GBPUSD has finished wave А/В of level Н4.
A beak below 1.5484 will resume the forming of wave А/В thus increasing its wave level potential up to Daily. The closest major levels of support are located at 1.5473, 1.5433/26, 1.5412 and 1.5392. A break above 1.5736 will resume the recent rally, represented by wave А(С)/С of level Daily2. If this is the case, the price may well encounter resistance around 1.5776.
Текст: Эдуард Кульченко, эксперт факультета торговой системы Masterforex-V
