According to Finanz, with reference to the International Energy Agency, Russia has been benefitting from its oil production and export for decades. However, this is about to change in the future since the Russian oil industry is about to see its production peak, which means it will inevitably start going down further down the road.
According the IEA’s 2018 oil report, there is no way Russian oil companies are going to boost their oil production forever. Moreover, in 3 years, the Russian oil industry is about to reach its all-time high and start declining steadily.
Last year, Russia produced 11,2 million barrels of crude oil, which is still the highest production level in 29 years. In 2021, the production level is going to peak at 11,74 million barrels. Shortly after that, the production is expected to start declining.
It’s interesting to note that this gloomy forecast made by the IEA has been confirmed by Russian stats. Yet, the newly-opened oil fields are unable to make up for the boosting production. For instance, according to RusEnergy , the average size of the oil fields discovered n 2016-2017 is 1,7 million tons, which is under 30% of the current oil export to China.
Some experts in Russia assume that after peaking at some time after 2020, the production is definitely going to start declining rather fast – up to 10% a year. This contradicts, the Russian government’s promises to preserve the production above 525 million tons a year up until 2035. If the forecast is correct, in 2035 Russia will be producing around 6 million barrels a day to barely cover internal needs. With that being said, there will be nothing to export.
