As soon as Iran is back to the global market of crude oil as a major exporter after the Western suctions are canceled, Iran is said to feel alright even if the prices are around $30 per barrel. This is what the Iranian Minister of Oil said not so long ago.
In particular, he assures everyone that even if oil prices go down to $30/b, the Iranian oil sector will still be functioning. It is also interesting to note that the initial supply of Iranian crude oil is going to be somewhere around 1 000 000 barrels a day. The oil export is supervised by the national government. At the same time, the minister underlines that Iran will do its best to restore the lost market share in 2016. OPEC should cooperate in this aspect.
International experts say that Iran has all chances to increase its oil production all the way up to 2 000 000 a day, which is way above the export volume expected before. This may well happen during the first couple of months after the Western sanctions are canceled. The sanctions imposed on the local banking sector as well as the export of crude oil are expected to be eliminated in late December 2015 – early January 2016. Iran is ready to start shipping crude oil instantly after it is allowed to do so.
It is important to keep in mind that as an OPEC member Iran used to be allowed to produce 4 million barrels a day. Before the sanctions, Iran produced 4,3 million barrels, with nearly 50% was used internally while the rest of the oil was exported. For now, Iran is going to export 1 million of crude oil, which will only add the fuel to the fire and bring oil prices further down no new major lows. Yet, OPEC is not going to be able to influence this decision.
