Vlad Demochko
On July 1st the former chief of the IMF Dominique-Strauss Kahn was released from custody. His family got back the money spent on the bail. Moreover Strauss-Kahn got the right to freedom of movement on the U.S. territory without leaving the country.
Why did the U.S. Court release Dominique Strauss-Kahn from custody?
First of all, we want to remind you that on May 14th the French politician and financier was arrested in the JFK airport, New York, on charge of sexual assault on a chambermaid in Sofitel hotel:
1. Charges. Previously the U.S. Court rejected all the requests for release made by Straus-Kahn’s attorneys. Strauss-Kahn faced a sentence of up to 70 years of imprisonment.
2. Doubt. Now the case against the French politician is going to pieces. The investigation bodies have some reasons to question the alleged victim’s evidence: supposedly the woman was previously proven guilty of false swearing, which certainly makes her evidence unreliable.
3. The victim may turn into the accused.
4. Possible dismissal of the action against Strauss-Kahn. The public prosecutor's office that investigates the case is now considering the possibility of dismissing the action against Strauss-Kahn.
What facts cannot but surprise?
The police was extremely fast when detaining Strauss-Kahn. He didn’t even have time to realize what was happening:
· There was no presumption of innocence. The world media almost unanimously made Strauss-Kahn guilty.
· The uncompromising stand of the U.S. Justice. The court rejected all the requests made by the defendants’ attorneys.
· The time of the arrest. The ex-chief of the IMF was arrested right in advance of meeting with the EU authorities to decide on the salutary financial aid to Greece and Portugal . The delay turned out to be rather costly for the European Union: the common European currency lost a lot of its value against the US Dollar.
· The proof of Strauss-Kahn’s innocence was unexpected. It looks fairly strange: During the 1.5 months of the trial, the investigation bodies somehow didn’t hit upon asking the U.S. Immigration Service about the alleged victim’s personality to find out that previously she had accused other innocent people of the same crime. However, right after the IMF’s new chief was elected, Strauss-Kahn was happy to suddenly find out that he was not guilty.
IMF’s new chief – new opportunities for investors?
On June28th the French Minister of Finance Christine Laguard was elected new Managing Director of the IMF:
1. U.S. support. In the run-up to the election Timothy Geithner, Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, officially supported Christine Laguard. Washington probably promised to support the European representative in exchange for some considerable concessions. Judging by the fact that the European candidate Christine Laguard won the elections and Strauss-Kahn was unexpectedly released from custody, Brussels eventually agreed to make the required concessions.
2. Russian support. The Prime Minister of Russia Vladimir Putin and Aleksey Kudrin, the Russian Minister of Finance, also supported Christine Laguard even though previously they were going to propose a candidate from the CIS or BRICS. Probably Washington and Brussels finally managed to reach compromise with Moscow.
3. The Euro currency exchange rate. The experts of say that the EURUSD chart offers an opportunity to go bearish. Those who trade the currency pair should be very careful. Moreover, EURUSD may continue its rally this week after the ECB announces its interest rate decision. Most traders are sure that the ECB is going to toughen its monetary policy. At the same time some analysts note that the reduction of liquidity in the global markets can be dangerous.
According to the SRP Sub-department under the Department of Masterforex-V TS,EURUSD has finished the formation of wave A H1 inside upswing C H4. If the local high is updated the price will start another wave C of H1. The downward scenario is also possible: EURUSD may continue the complex retracement in the form of wave B H1.
The next target of the upward wave C H4 is 1.4652.
What are Strauss-Kahn’s perspectives?
If the action against him is closed or the court discharges him, Strauss-Kahn will get the following opportunities:
In politics: He will get an opportunity to participate in the forthcoming presidential election in France. Before the arrest he planned to do that. According to the latest opinion polls, Strauss-Kahn still has a good chance to win the presidential elections if he returns to France as a victim of injustice.
In economy: If he is elected president or at least gains a significant post in the country’s government, he will definitely “stay afloat” while his priceless experience and knowledge, as well as his financial ties will help him.
Market Leader and would appreciate if you could share your own opinion on the matter. Please, visit the Academy’s forum and answer the following question:
Do the latest events really confirm that there has been some conspiracy against Strauss-Kahn?
· Yes, the definitely do.
· It is highly probable. But it’s not over yet.
· No, they don’t. It is just a coincidence.
Vlad Demochko
