Edward Culchenko
⬤ Cocoa March 2026 futures took a beating during the latest session, crashing through support levels and settling near 4,648—a brutal 8.4% single-day drop. This marks the weakest level since early 2024, with prices sliding into long-term support territory that hasn't been tested in years. The selloff wasn't just a blip—it's the continuation of a downtrend that's been picking up steam for months.
⬤ The chart tells a pretty clear story. After hitting a peak above 12,000 in late 2024, cocoa's been on a steady slide through 2025 and into 2026. Every time buyers tried to push prices higher, they got shut down below previous resistance zones. That left the market wide open for another leg down, and that's exactly what happened—prices sliced through multiple support levels and landed right where we are now.
⬤ What's striking about this drop is how one-sided it was. Sellers dominated the entire session with barely any pushback, and the close came in right near the day's low. That's not the kind of price action you see when bargain hunters are stepping in—it's pure capitulation. There's no sign of stabilization yet, no higher lows forming, nothing that suggests buyers are ready to defend this level. The bears are still firmly in control.
⬤ This isn't just about one contract tanking. Cocoa pricing ripples through the entire agricultural supply chain, affecting everything from producer income to hedging strategies across major growing regions. When prices sit at multi-year lows for an extended period, it changes the game—production plans get rethought, forward contracts get repriced, and market psychology shifts. Whether 4,648 holds as a floor or gives way to even lower prices will set the tone for soft commodities heading into the coming weeks.
Edward Culchenko
