Serj Panchuk
⬤ USD/JPY's sharp drop ran out of steam near a critical chart level, with price holding about 15 pips above 151.95 before bouncing back. This zone has been a major reference point, and the failure to push lower marked a clear pause in selling pressure. The hourly chart shows that bears backed off ahead of that level, giving bulls room to reverse from the session lows.
⬤ After the stall at 151.95, USD/JPY climbed back toward 153.41, which now acts as resistance after previously being support. The chart shows this level lining up with earlier consolidation and horizontal structure, making it a logical area for price to test again. While the bounce has been strong, price remains capped below higher resistance, suggesting the broader downtrend isn't done yet.
The broader context around US dollar expectations shows calls for a weaker dollar have been communicated for months.
⬤ With USD/JPY bouncing into former support, the big question now is whether long-term bulls use this recovery to trim positions rather than add more. The price action reflects that uncertainty—the rebound is running into resistance instead of breaking through it. This setup puts USD/JPY at a technical crossroads between short-term recovery and the larger move down. A rejection near 153.41 would keep focus on 151.95 as the key downside level, while sustained strength through resistance would signal a deeper correction is developing.
Serj Panchuk
