Alex Bobrov
⬤ EUR/USD took off during European trading, blowing past the 1.1910–1.1915 zone and breaking through a long-term trendline around 1.1975 before the rally started cooling off. The move came on fresh dollar weakness after recent DJT comments, though the pair eventually pulled back toward that same trendline area after the initial spike.
⬤ The breakout was significant from a technical standpoint—EUR/USD reclaimed levels that had been keeping it capped for a while. The pair made a quick run toward 1.20 on strong buying interest before settling just below the 1.1980–1.2000 zone. Price is now holding above key moving averages, which keeps the overall picture looking positive even as things calm down in the short term.
The move was driven by renewed US dollar weakness, with price action later rotating back toward the trendline area.
⬤ Looking at key levels, resistance sits at 1.2040 first, then 1.2100 if dollar pressure keeps building. Support is at 1.1950–1.1975 initially, with the 1.1905–1.1915 zone becoming more important if there's a deeper pullback. That lower area lines up with the breakout zone and remains a crucial technical reference point.
⬤ The timing here matters—the FOMC decision and Powell's press conference are coming up later today. Whether EUR/USD can close above or below that 1.1975 trendline could set the tone for where things go next, especially as Fed policy signals hit a market that's already sitting at technically important levels.
Alex Bobrov
