Alex von Stachelkopf
⬤ The offshore renminbi is staging a significant reversal after years of weakness, with CNH/USD breaking higher from what appears to be a solid bottom formation. The multi-year chart shows a steep decline from 2021 peaks, followed by stabilization through 2023-2024, and now a steady climb into early 2026 that looks more structural than temporary.
⬤ After hitting lows in 2023 and bottoming through 2024, the currency started building a base with progressively higher lows. The recent push toward the 0.143-0.145 zone tests old resistance levels, making this breakout technically significant after years of downtrend dominance.
⬤ A firmer CNH/USD directly impacts commodity markets by increasing China's purchasing power for raw materials priced in dollars and other foreign currencies. This is already playing out in silver, where Shanghai is pulling physical supply away from Western vaults like LBMA and COMEX—currency strength is literally changing where metal flows.
⬤ This matters because China drives global commodity demand, and when the yuan strengthens, it doesn't just change sentiment—it alters actual purchasing power and trade patterns. If CNH/USD holds above these breakout levels, expect continued physical demand to tighten Western supplies. Currency movements are becoming as important as speculation in driving resource markets.
Alex von Stachelkopf
