11 May 05:26 AM
Yesterday’s attempts of common European currency to overcome gravitation at Forex market and enter an uptrend in relation to US dollar have not been successful. The main line of AO_Zotik index failed to quit h4 bearish impulse zone. At the same time, there are certain secondary signs of the end of mid-term bearish trend, they are, though, too early to appear.
However, when looking at m15 chart of EURUSD currency pair, one can see the lasting bearish trend, represented by a combination of forming waves "А" and "В" of m10-m15 levels. If impulse nature of the down trend is broken, the decline will be continued by profit-making wave "С". Otherwise, according to the specialists of the System of Early Prediction Sub-department of Masterforex-V Trading Academy, anything may happen.
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The world’s most popular currency pair starts October with consolidating within the scope of the 1.2570-1.2634 price range. The current trading week started from a move within the 1.2663-1.2714 range. The currency pair started moving to the bottom of the range, thereby narrowing it a bit. Later on, during yesterday’s European trading session, the currency pair went on declining and finally set a new 2-year low at 1.2570.
The dollar index, which is evaluating the USD value against a basket of 6 other major currencies, is still rallying actively. All in all, the USD index managed to gain 4,4% in September. This happened mainly at the expense of the common European currency, which accounts for the lion’s share of the index – some 50%. Apparently, the common European currency keeps on losing value amid disappointing economic figures coming from the Eurozone. At the same time, most traders and investors are anticipating another round of quantitative easing by the ECB in an effort to back the economic recovery in Europe, which is definitely going to exert some downward pressure on the common currency amid the fact that the Fed is about to taper QE3 to the end this month.
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Investors are looking forward to a further long-term downtrend in the markets of EUR and JPY amid an economic slowdown seen in Japan and the Eurozone while the US economy seems to be strengthening at a pretty stable rate.
The Eurozone continued cutting its lending in August. The ECB is determined to reconsider its arsenal of measures used to reach the inflation target. With that said, the lending volume within the Eurozone's private sector shrank by 1,5% in August 2014 as opposed to August 2013. With that said, the pace of decline slowed down as compared to July's 1,6%. The lending decline has been seen for 28 months so far. This gives the ECB a signal to start stimulating it.