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Tuesday, 27 June 07:41 (GMT -05:00)



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European Budgetary Union: Illusion or Way Out Of Debt Crisis?

European Budgetary Union: Illusion or Way Out Of Debt Crisis?

 

 

EU leaders held another summit in Brussels on Jan 30th. It was attended by mixed sentiments and forecasts. Luckily, the EU and the eurozone managed to avoid disintegration. However, they didn’t find the cure for all the economic problems in the union either.
 
Germany and France, 2 economic locomotives of the debt-ridden eurozone, didn’t quit the currency union despite expectations but made another (the last) warning to the other eurozone members, thus reminding them to maintain budgetary discipline and forcing them to sing a “fiscal plan”.

 

 

 

 

 

 

December’s EU Summit
 
There was another EU summit held in December. The goals were the same – to save the eurozone and the EU from the escalating debt crisis. As a result, the participants approved several budgetary and tax reforms within the union.
 
The essence of these reforms: The EU’s new budget and tax policies should correspond to the French –German plan, according to which:
 
·         All the eurozone members should accept and never violate the budget deficit limit.  
·         The Euro Commission gets the right to introduce tough sanctions against violators.
·         All the 17 eurozone countries should have common corporate and other tax rates.
·         In future, no eurozone country can accept private financial support (as it was done by Greece).
 
The “split’ of the EU: The plan offered by Germany and France was supported by all the 17 eurozone members. However, David Cameron, the UK’s Prime Minister, blocked the idea of spreading the plan over the entire EU. Therefore, a demarcation line between the eurozone and non-eurozone members of the EU started to emerge. The latter are dissatisfied that the former want to make decisions for them.
 
 
January’s emergency summit
The EU entered 2012 without a new financial charter even though during December’s summit it was agreed to prepare a new version of the Lisbon Treaty (including the budgetary changes) by March 2012. So far, those changes have been accepted only by eurozone members.
During the January summit Angela Merkel offered all the 27 EU members to sign a financial pact, which suggested:
·         Fines for violating the budget deficit limit.
·         These fines will contribute to the European Stability Mechanism (ESM).
·         The only exception is a force-majeure like natural disasters or sharp economic decline.
As the result, 17 eurozone and 8 non-eurozone members signed the budgetary pact offered by Germany, even though it was sufficient to get 12 votes. Therefore, 25 of 27 EU countries approved the introduction of new fiscal and budgetary rules. Only the UK and Czech Republic denied them. Poland, Hungary and Sweden hesitated for some time.
 
Results
 
A couple of days ago Angela Merkel expressed confidence that the EU would manage to overcome the crisis and to restore the confidence of financial markets.
On Jan 31st, after the EU summit, European stock indexes rallied after a 2-days decline. Stoxx Europe 600 increased by 0,5% up to 253,68. Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0,53%, thus reaching 2417,30. The UK’s FTSE 100 rallied 0,68% up to 5709,75. France’s CAC 40 increased by 28,59 (+0,88%), thus reaching 3294,23. Germany’s DAX gained 26,18 (+0,41%) thus hitting 6470,63. However, later on, the markets got disappointed by the fact that the EU authorities decided to postpone the Greek issue till March. The rally stopped.
 
Investors realize that the new fiscal pact aimed at strengthening the budgetary disciple within the EU is good, but the results will be visible only in long-term perspective. The legal mechanism of fining is not specified yet. There is no guarantee that weak eurozone economies will maintain the budgetary discipline. Now there is one more union within the EU: the fiscal union of 25 countries, apart from the EU itself (27 members) and the eurozone (17 EU members). This complicated structure may scare away numerous foreign investors.
 
What can inspire investors?
 
The very fact that Europe supported Germany’s initiative hints that it unofficially accepted its leadership in the union. The German authorities definitely like this fact and will probably allocate some funds to support Greece, Portugal and Ireland because now they probably assume that European borrowers will be more disciplined.
The supporters of the new fiscal union are sure that the Czech Republic will soon join it while David Cameron’s successor will probably be more complaisant.    
 
 
EURUSD: Forecast
 
According to the Department of Masterforex-V Trading System , EURUSD is flattish in mid-term perspective. A break above the local high 1.3217 will trigger sub-wave C(C ).  The closest levels of resistance are 1.3233, 1.3242, 1.3375, 1.3434. A break below 1.3031 will probably complete the rally, this initiating a downswing – wave A/B.
 

 

 

 

 
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Will the new budgetary agreement be efficient enough to help the eurozone come out the debt crisis?

 

 

 

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What’s New in New Anti-Russia Sanctions?

Today, the Russian political establishment and media are glad that the Senate of the U.S. Congress has recently postponed their voting on new sanctions against Russia. However, this is just the so-called “calm before the storm”, Western experts say.

 

 
The new sanction mechanism developed by the Senate is fundamentally different from the sanctions imposed on Russia previously, under Obama’s administration. The experts say that unlike Obama’s isolated decrees, the Senate has come up with a whole new mechanism taking into consideration the whole seriousness of Russia’s crimes in the global geopolitical arena. This mechanism will prevent the U.S. authorities from being able to cancel those sanctions gradually. So, the only way out will boil down to Russia leaving Donbass, the Crimea and Syria. So, this will be the only opportunity for Russia to see the Western world cancel those sanctions.
Publication date: 26 June 01:26 AM

Fed Raises Key Interest Rate. How Will This Affect Russian Economy?

The federal Reserve has raised the key interest rate by 0,25%. According to international experts, this may well make foreign assets (including Russian ones) less attractive in terms of investing.

 

 
The decision was made as the result of the recent 2-day FOMC meeting. The interest rate was raised up to 1-1,25%. At the same time, it’s interesting to note that the actual decision matched expectations, both from the international expert community and financial markets.
Publication date: 20 June 05:12 AM

Why Did British People Punish Theresa May During Parliamentary Election?

During the recent parliamentary election in the UK, the British Conservatives failed to gain public support required to get the absolute majority in the British parliament. Now, the international expert community is discussing the reasons why Theresa May failed on her expectations.

 

 
Publication date: 20 June 03:09 AM

Why Does Trump Fail to Be a Good President?

As you probably know, the scandal around Donald Trump’s decision to fire FBI Director Comey is just one of the unpleasant incidents in his presidential career started in early 2017.

 

 
The truth of the matter is, after the investigation against Michael Flynn started, Donald Trump asked FBI Director Comey to let the investigation slide. While Director Comey didn’t dare object to President Trump openly, he didn’t do that. On the contrary, the investigation got even more intensive.
Publication date: 16 June 01:46 AM

Trump Accuses Qatar Of Financing Terrorists

Donald Trump thinks that Qatar has been involved in sponsoring terrorists in the Middle East. That said, the USA joined other nations accusing Qatar of this kind of financing. President Trump thinks that it’s time to put an end to this. However, he didn’t specify what exactly Qatar did to sponsor terrorists.

 
Publication date: 15 June 05:35 AM

Trump Is a Boomerang Russians Have Hit Themselves With

Experts say that Donald Trump is gradually turning into a boomerang launched by Russia, and the thing is, this boomerang is going to hit Russia, thereby disappointing the Kremlin instead of letting them. President Trump is turning from Russia’s hope into Russia’s disappointment.
 

 

The Kremlin celebrated Trump’s victory with champagne while today Vladimir Putin says he didn’t expect anything from Donald Trump as the next president of the United States. He moved to the White House 5 months ago, but none of his decisions was made in favor of Russia.
Publication date: 13 June 06:25 AM

Will Macron Become Anti-Trump?

 New French President Emmanuel Macron seems to be getting more popular both in France and outside. The 39-year-old President of France seems to have challenged his 70-year-old American peer.

 

 
Not so long ago, he made his TV speech in English. While some older representatives of the French people were indignant at this move since no other president in the history of France had ever dare do so, but the French youth seemed to like this.
Publication date: 12 June 01:52 AM

Google Reveals Near-Term Forecast

Google Technical Director Ray Kurzweil has revealed his forecast for the period until 2030. Previously, he also made similar prediction for the near future related to IT. Strange as it may see, most of his predictions did really become a reality. That’s why the international community has been closely watching his predictions over the last few years, even though sometimes it’s very difficult to believe that the future will be the same as he described in his forecast.

Publication date: 10 June 11:54 PM

25th Amendment Threatens Trump with Impeachment

President Trump is reported to have found himself in another unpleasant situation. To be more specific, just for revealing some top-secret information to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, he is now threatened with a possible impeachment. They say that the 25 amendment to the American constitution, this becomes a very likely scenario. In particular, this assumption was put forward by an advisor who used to work for George Bush Jr.

 

 
Publication date: 07 June 12:25 AM

Chinese IT Innovations as an Example for the Resto of the World

China seems to have been trying hard to revolutionize the Internet and entire IT industry through innovation. The international expert community has been seriously discussing the possibility of China setting a good example for the rest of the world when it comes to innovation.
 
Publication date: 05 June 06:04 AM