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Monday, 27 February 10:51 (GMT -05:00)



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European Budgetary Union: Illusion or Way Out Of Debt Crisis?

European Budgetary Union: Illusion or Way Out Of Debt Crisis?

 

 

EU leaders held another summit in Brussels on Jan 30th. It was attended by mixed sentiments and forecasts. Luckily, the EU and the eurozone managed to avoid disintegration. However, they didn’t find the cure for all the economic problems in the union either.
 
Germany and France, 2 economic locomotives of the debt-ridden eurozone, didn’t quit the currency union despite expectations but made another (the last) warning to the other eurozone members, thus reminding them to maintain budgetary discipline and forcing them to sing a “fiscal plan”.

 

 

 

 

 

 

December’s EU Summit
 
There was another EU summit held in December. The goals were the same – to save the eurozone and the EU from the escalating debt crisis. As a result, the participants approved several budgetary and tax reforms within the union.
 
The essence of these reforms: The EU’s new budget and tax policies should correspond to the French –German plan, according to which:
 
·         All the eurozone members should accept and never violate the budget deficit limit.  
·         The Euro Commission gets the right to introduce tough sanctions against violators.
·         All the 17 eurozone countries should have common corporate and other tax rates.
·         In future, no eurozone country can accept private financial support (as it was done by Greece).
 
The “split’ of the EU: The plan offered by Germany and France was supported by all the 17 eurozone members. However, David Cameron, the UK’s Prime Minister, blocked the idea of spreading the plan over the entire EU. Therefore, a demarcation line between the eurozone and non-eurozone members of the EU started to emerge. The latter are dissatisfied that the former want to make decisions for them.
 
 
January’s emergency summit
The EU entered 2012 without a new financial charter even though during December’s summit it was agreed to prepare a new version of the Lisbon Treaty (including the budgetary changes) by March 2012. So far, those changes have been accepted only by eurozone members.
During the January summit Angela Merkel offered all the 27 EU members to sign a financial pact, which suggested:
·         Fines for violating the budget deficit limit.
·         These fines will contribute to the European Stability Mechanism (ESM).
·         The only exception is a force-majeure like natural disasters or sharp economic decline.
As the result, 17 eurozone and 8 non-eurozone members signed the budgetary pact offered by Germany, even though it was sufficient to get 12 votes. Therefore, 25 of 27 EU countries approved the introduction of new fiscal and budgetary rules. Only the UK and Czech Republic denied them. Poland, Hungary and Sweden hesitated for some time.
 
Results
 
A couple of days ago Angela Merkel expressed confidence that the EU would manage to overcome the crisis and to restore the confidence of financial markets.
On Jan 31st, after the EU summit, European stock indexes rallied after a 2-days decline. Stoxx Europe 600 increased by 0,5% up to 253,68. Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0,53%, thus reaching 2417,30. The UK’s FTSE 100 rallied 0,68% up to 5709,75. France’s CAC 40 increased by 28,59 (+0,88%), thus reaching 3294,23. Germany’s DAX gained 26,18 (+0,41%) thus hitting 6470,63. However, later on, the markets got disappointed by the fact that the EU authorities decided to postpone the Greek issue till March. The rally stopped.
 
Investors realize that the new fiscal pact aimed at strengthening the budgetary disciple within the EU is good, but the results will be visible only in long-term perspective. The legal mechanism of fining is not specified yet. There is no guarantee that weak eurozone economies will maintain the budgetary discipline. Now there is one more union within the EU: the fiscal union of 25 countries, apart from the EU itself (27 members) and the eurozone (17 EU members). This complicated structure may scare away numerous foreign investors.
 
What can inspire investors?
 
The very fact that Europe supported Germany’s initiative hints that it unofficially accepted its leadership in the union. The German authorities definitely like this fact and will probably allocate some funds to support Greece, Portugal and Ireland because now they probably assume that European borrowers will be more disciplined.
The supporters of the new fiscal union are sure that the Czech Republic will soon join it while David Cameron’s successor will probably be more complaisant.    
 
 
EURUSD: Forecast
 
According to the Department of Masterforex-V Trading System , EURUSD is flattish in mid-term perspective. A break above the local high 1.3217 will trigger sub-wave C(C ).  The closest levels of resistance are 1.3233, 1.3242, 1.3375, 1.3434. A break below 1.3031 will probably complete the rally, this initiating a downswing – wave A/B.
 

 

 

 

 
Market Leader and Masterforex-V Academy would appreciate if you could participate in a survey. Please, visit the Academy’s forum for traders and investors and answer the following question:
Will the new budgetary agreement be efficient enough to help the eurozone come out the debt crisis?

 

 

 

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Trump’s Statements on Crimea Shocked Moscow

One of the key political news of the last few weeks is an unexpected turn in President Trump's rhetoric. He says that the USA is not going to cancel the anti-Russian sanctions unless Russia gives the Crimea back to Ukraine and starts deescalating the conflict in Donbass. This statement seems to be the opposite one to those he made previously when saying he wanted to make friends with Putting if possible. This statement was made by Sean Spicer, the White House Press Secretary and Communications Director for U.S. President Donald Trump.

Publication date: 24 February 05:10 AM

USA's Ultimatum to NATO: Spend More on Defense

The USA doesn’t seem to want to quit the NATO. However, they are fed up with financing the lion’s share of the alliance.
 
The Pentagon’s ultimatum to the rest of the NATO says:  Either you start spending more money on defense or we start reconsidering our participation in the alliance.
Publication date: 21 February 07:21 AM

Russia Captured the Crimea Because of Obama's Indecisiveness, Trump Says

Donald Trump keeps on making Russia unpleasantly surprised. If a couple of months ago they used to welcome Trump’s victory and hope to make friends with the USA, now they start thinking that maybe Hillary Clinton could have become a better option for Russia as the U.S. President.

 

 
Publication date: 21 February 06:35 AM

Fed Chair Janet Yellen Says Delaying Interest Rate Hikes Is Unwise

According to the Chair of the Federal Reserve, it would be unwise to keep on delaying interest rate hikes. The other day, Janet Yellen told the Board of Directors of the Federal Reserve that they might consider another interest rate hike during the forthcoming FOMC meeting.
 
Publication date: 20 February 11:25 AM

The Guardian Questions Relations Between Trump and Putin

According to a number of political observers, including those working for The Guardian, the relation between the USA and Russia has been begging many questions ever since Donald Trump moved to the White House.

 

 
Publication date: 20 February 05:21 AM

New Secretary of the Treasury Says No to Canceling Sanctions against Russia

Even despite the fact that Donald trump unexpectedly become the 45th President of the United States, and he seems to be more loyal to Russia than any U.S. leader over the last couple of decades, Russia has still been failing to find a common language with the USA.
 

 

Donald Trump started his presidency with unpopular decisions. Some of his policies are not welcomed by politicians from both parties, not to mention mass media, secret services and millions of U.S. citizens. Maybe Putin was hoping that Trump would start helping Russia implementing its imperial ambitions despite the public discontent in the USA. But those hopes now seem to be broken. The sanctions will stay effective until Russia gives the Crimea back to Ukraine. That’s the standpoint put forward by Trump’s administration.
Publication date: 20 February 12:03 AM

Trump Leaves Putin Without Key “Trump”

The dialog between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump is following an unexpected scenario. It’s unexpected for Moscow. The Kremlin seems to have lost their key “trump” card in the talks with Washington.

 

 
According to some military experts, even the most unbiased Russian media ignored a sensational statement published by Reuters. To be more specific, Reuters claimed that during the recent phone call to Washington, Putin told Trump that he was ready to discuss the possibility of extending the agreement to cut nuclear arms. The agreement was signed in 2010 in Prague and will expire in 2020.
Publication date: 19 February 03:22 PM

Trump Wants Big Deal with Russia. What May Come out of It?

It’s seems like Donald Trump doesn’t mind creating some kind of an alliance with Vladimir Putin. Is so, can he succeed or will he become another U.S. president fooled by Putin. This is the question a number of international experts are trying to answer.
 

 

For now, the details of the plan are vague. The current ambiguity existing among the representatives of Trump’s administration hints at this fact. Even when the USA's Permanent Representative to the United Nations demanded for the condemnation of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, Donald Trump seemed to still have some hope for making friends with Putin. At the same time, he wouldn’t dare say something like ‘the USA is as blood-thirsty as Russia’.
Publication date: 19 February 01:48 PM

Scotland Is Against Brexit

The House of Commons of the British Parliament decided that Prime Minister Theresa May should fulfil the people’s will expressed during the Brexit referendum in summer 2016 and launch the Brexit procedure to quit the European Union. This means that the British government is allowed to start the negotiation with Brussels over the terms and conditions quitting the European Union for good.
 
Publication date: 19 February 05:22 AM

Senate Prepares a Draft Law Forbidding to Cancel Anti-Russian Sanctions

Several members of the U.S. Senate led by ben Cardin and Lindsey Gram prepared a draft law designed so as to make the White House provide the Congress with a detailed explanation if at some point in the future the U.S. Presidents decided to cancel the sanctions imposed on Russia. On top of that, 120 days after the explanation is provided, the Congress will decide whether to support this initiative.
 
Publication date: 16 February 12:16 PM