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Wednesday, 29 March 03:07 (GMT -05:00)



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European Budgetary Union: Illusion or Way Out Of Debt Crisis?

European Budgetary Union: Illusion or Way Out Of Debt Crisis?

 

 

EU leaders held another summit in Brussels on Jan 30th. It was attended by mixed sentiments and forecasts. Luckily, the EU and the eurozone managed to avoid disintegration. However, they didn’t find the cure for all the economic problems in the union either.
 
Germany and France, 2 economic locomotives of the debt-ridden eurozone, didn’t quit the currency union despite expectations but made another (the last) warning to the other eurozone members, thus reminding them to maintain budgetary discipline and forcing them to sing a “fiscal plan”.

 

 

 

 

 

 

December’s EU Summit
 
There was another EU summit held in December. The goals were the same – to save the eurozone and the EU from the escalating debt crisis. As a result, the participants approved several budgetary and tax reforms within the union.
 
The essence of these reforms: The EU’s new budget and tax policies should correspond to the French –German plan, according to which:
 
·         All the eurozone members should accept and never violate the budget deficit limit.  
·         The Euro Commission gets the right to introduce tough sanctions against violators.
·         All the 17 eurozone countries should have common corporate and other tax rates.
·         In future, no eurozone country can accept private financial support (as it was done by Greece).
 
The “split’ of the EU: The plan offered by Germany and France was supported by all the 17 eurozone members. However, David Cameron, the UK’s Prime Minister, blocked the idea of spreading the plan over the entire EU. Therefore, a demarcation line between the eurozone and non-eurozone members of the EU started to emerge. The latter are dissatisfied that the former want to make decisions for them.
 
 
January’s emergency summit
The EU entered 2012 without a new financial charter even though during December’s summit it was agreed to prepare a new version of the Lisbon Treaty (including the budgetary changes) by March 2012. So far, those changes have been accepted only by eurozone members.
During the January summit Angela Merkel offered all the 27 EU members to sign a financial pact, which suggested:
·         Fines for violating the budget deficit limit.
·         These fines will contribute to the European Stability Mechanism (ESM).
·         The only exception is a force-majeure like natural disasters or sharp economic decline.
As the result, 17 eurozone and 8 non-eurozone members signed the budgetary pact offered by Germany, even though it was sufficient to get 12 votes. Therefore, 25 of 27 EU countries approved the introduction of new fiscal and budgetary rules. Only the UK and Czech Republic denied them. Poland, Hungary and Sweden hesitated for some time.
 
Results
 
A couple of days ago Angela Merkel expressed confidence that the EU would manage to overcome the crisis and to restore the confidence of financial markets.
On Jan 31st, after the EU summit, European stock indexes rallied after a 2-days decline. Stoxx Europe 600 increased by 0,5% up to 253,68. Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0,53%, thus reaching 2417,30. The UK’s FTSE 100 rallied 0,68% up to 5709,75. France’s CAC 40 increased by 28,59 (+0,88%), thus reaching 3294,23. Germany’s DAX gained 26,18 (+0,41%) thus hitting 6470,63. However, later on, the markets got disappointed by the fact that the EU authorities decided to postpone the Greek issue till March. The rally stopped.
 
Investors realize that the new fiscal pact aimed at strengthening the budgetary disciple within the EU is good, but the results will be visible only in long-term perspective. The legal mechanism of fining is not specified yet. There is no guarantee that weak eurozone economies will maintain the budgetary discipline. Now there is one more union within the EU: the fiscal union of 25 countries, apart from the EU itself (27 members) and the eurozone (17 EU members). This complicated structure may scare away numerous foreign investors.
 
What can inspire investors?
 
The very fact that Europe supported Germany’s initiative hints that it unofficially accepted its leadership in the union. The German authorities definitely like this fact and will probably allocate some funds to support Greece, Portugal and Ireland because now they probably assume that European borrowers will be more disciplined.
The supporters of the new fiscal union are sure that the Czech Republic will soon join it while David Cameron’s successor will probably be more complaisant.    
 
 
EURUSD: Forecast
 
According to the Department of Masterforex-V Trading System , EURUSD is flattish in mid-term perspective. A break above the local high 1.3217 will trigger sub-wave C(C ).  The closest levels of resistance are 1.3233, 1.3242, 1.3375, 1.3434. A break below 1.3031 will probably complete the rally, this initiating a downswing – wave A/B.
 

 

 

 

 
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Will the new budgetary agreement be efficient enough to help the eurozone come out the debt crisis?

 

 

 

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Soros, Rockefeller and Other Billionaires Ask U.S. Government to Raise Taxes for Them

The State of New York’s richest citizens – including some of the world’s richest families such as Soros, Rockefeller, Disney and others – have signed a petition to ask the local authorities to raise the taxes for the super-rich.

 

 
The extra money allocated as the result of those tax hikes are offered to be spend on schools, infrastructure, support for the homeless and other important things. The billionaires say that it’s time to invest in the long-term economic attractiveness of New York.
Publication date: 25 March 06:02 AM

Polish Defense Minister Calls Donald Tusk a Traitor

Not so long ago, Poland found itself in the middle of another political scandal. The thing is that the Polish Minister of Defense accused President of the European Council Donald Tusk in a diplomatic betrayal. For those of you who don’t know, Donald Tusk used to be the Prime Minister of Poland.
 
To be more specific, Donald Tusk was allegedly cooperating with Vladimir Putin when he was the Prime Minister of Poland. They Defense Minister claims that the aim of this cooperation was to undermine Poland’s national interests after the Polish President’s airplane crashed in Russia in 2010. Apart from the President, there were 95 people on board, including a lot of high-ranking Polish politicians. Unfortunately, nobody survived the crash.
 
Publication date: 24 March 09:48 AM

Candidate Macron Is Against Tighter Relations with Russia

Emmanuel Macron is a former French Minister of Economy and one of the candidates of the post of the President of France.  He thinks that France should be moving forward to tighter relations with the Russian Federation.
 

 

During the pre-election debates broadcast by TF1, Emmanuel Macron showed that he wouldn’t make friends with Moscow if he elected President of France. He thinks that France needs independence and tighter cooperation with fellow EU countries. He wants to make France stronger and more independent based on responsibility and real European policies.
 
Publication date: 24 March 12:49 AM

Russia's Become More Influential in the Middle East, Stratfor Says

According to Stratfor, a US-based private analytic company, Russia has really become more influential in the Middle East.
 
According to the recent report released by Stratfor the other day, since the Russian federation has deployed its troops in Syria, it has been increasing its role in the entire region. Apart from helping Iran (shipping weapons) and Egypt (investing through Russian tourists), Russia has been actively participating in several regional disputes at the same time.
Publication date: 23 March 09:32 AM

Evgeny Kiselev on 3 Years of Russia's Crimean Shame

For those of you who don’t know, a couple of days ago, Russia celebrated the 3rd anniversary of getting back the Crimea, which was essentially annexation. Evgeny Kiselev, a famous Russian journalist who later got the Ukrainian citizenship, decided to comment on the results of Russia’s annexation of the Crimea that took place 3 years ago.
 
Publication date: 23 March 04:27 AM

Europe Looks Helpless Under the Treat Coming from Russia, Experts Say

According to several experts, including Mikhail Samous, a military expert from Ukraine, at this point the entire Europe looks helpless when it comes to any possible threat coming from Russia.
 

 

To be more specific, Mikhail and his fellow experts assume that Europe has still failed to come up with efficient ways of resisting the kind of a hybrid war Russia has been waging in Ukraine, and even some other places around the world.

Publication date: 22 March 08:43 AM

Trump's in Search of Peaceful Conflict Resolution in Donbass

Donald Trump met with Angela Merkel. There are reported to have spent a lot of time discussing the situation in Ukraine.
 

 

Having talked to Angela Merkel, Donald Trump agreed with the idea of peaceful resolution of the Donbass conflict. However, he also gave everyone to understand that some other scenarios are possible as well. He said that ideally they are looking for the ways and means to resolve the conflict in a peaceful way.
Publication date: 22 March 02:54 AM

Queen Stats Brexit

From now on, the British government is allowed to start the so-called Brexit, i.e. the process of quitting the European Union for good. The thing is that the previously approved document aimed at starting the Brexit procedure is now signed by Queen Elizabeth II. This means that the British government has got a green light to implement the people’s will expressed during the corresponding referendum on June 23rd, 2016. From now on, there is no stopping Theresa may from starting the Brexit.

Publication date: 20 March 11:28 AM

It’s Necessary to Prevent Russia from Influencing the Balkans, Theresa May Says

According to British Prime Minister Theresa May, the Balkan states are in jeopardy. This threat is coming from Russia. That’s why she thinks that European leaders should establish tighter cooperation with those Balkan states that are not EU members to avoid letting Russia spread their influence over those states.

Publication date: 20 March 06:12 AM

Angela Merkel's Gonna Shed Some Light on the Situation in Ukraine for Donald Trump

Several Western online sources report that Angela Merkel is willing to tell Donald Trump all the truth about what’s really going on in Ukraine. The thing is that German observers assume that Donald Trump knows relatively little about the situation in Ukraine in general and the East of Ukraine in particular. That’s why they assume that their Chancellor seems to think that it’s now here responsibility as a European leader to shed some light on the situation and help the U.S. President understand the real state of affairs in the region, especially in the Crimea and Donbass.

Publication date: 20 March 05:35 AM