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Tuesday, 27 June 16:14 (GMT -05:00)



Stock and commodities markets

Gold and silver: market outlook

Gold and silver: market outlook

 

 

Yesterday, after a strong rally on higher dollar liquidity, the markets were influenced mostly by macroeconomic stats. Investors wonder what are the prospects of the world’s biggest economies.
 

 

 

 

 

 

Today the US is to release its Non-Farm Payrolls. The forecast is +120К. Others say it may increase by 120К or even 125K. However, this is not expected to change the 9% rate of unemployment but may well reassure investors about the US economic prospects.
 
Yesterday the Senate elongated the period of lower taxes and denied tax hikes for the US middle class. It is expected to keep stimulating the country’s consumer spending in 2012.
Mario Draghi, ECB President, said yesterday that the bank is determined to take more cardinal steps probably hinting at possible interest rate cuts) in order to combat the eurozone crisis if during next week’s summit the EU leaders agree on tougher control over the budgets of all the 17 eurozone members and agree to make major decisions by a majority vote. Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel backed those requirements. On Monday they will meet to work out a detailed plan, which will be discussed on Dec 9th.
The bond auctions held by Spain and France were a success, attended by high demand.
Goldman Sachs and HSBC anticipate interest rate cuts in China in 2012 in order to stimulate the world’s 2nd largest economy.
Central banks keep buying up gold amid global uncertainty. South Korea bought 15 tons of gold in Sep and 25 tons in June-July, thus increasing its gold reserves up to 54.4 tons.
 
However, if investors gain more confidence about the global economy, the demand for precious metals as safe haven assets will probably decline, with inflation being the only factor to support gold and silver prices.
 
Forecast: According to the Department of Commodity Trading, Masterforex-V Academy, yesterday gold failed to consolidate above 1750. Today gold may test the 1750-1753 area once again. A failure may result in a downswing, with targets at 1740, 1725, 1718. In order to continue the rally gold will have to consolidate above 1750.
 
As for silver, $33/oz has been a strong barrier so far. Today silver may keep testing the 33.1-33.2 zone. A break above 33.2 is needed to continue the rally. A failure will give way to 32.6-32.5, and may be further down to 32.

 


 

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Crude Oil Plunges Below $45/b

Oil prices keep on going down. Yesterday, for the first time since November 2016, the price of Brent oil dropped below $45/b. to be more specific, later on the trading day, a barrel of Brent oil cost $44,63 in London (ICE Futures). This means that the price dropped by 3% over the trading day. A day before, the trading session ended up with $46,02/b, NordFX reports. This is the lowest price since November 15, 2016.

 

 
Publication date: 21 June 11:36 PM

Trading Week Starts with Oil Price Drop

On Monday, June 19, crude oil is getting cheaper worldwide. Experts say that the price drop has to do with the recent report on the amount of oil rigs in the United States. In particular, the report says that the amount of such rigs has grown over the last week.
 

 

Baker Hughes reported on June 16 that 6 new rigs had been activated over the reporting period, thereby setting a new major high – 767 units, which is the biggest amount of functioning oil rigs since April 2015. By the way, the amount of oil rigs has been continuously growing over the last 22 weeks, which is also the new 30-year record.
Publication date: 19 June 02:27 AM

Brent Drops Below $48/b Amid Qatar’s Paradox

The Qatar crisis failed to push oil prices higher as expected by those who had previously extended the so-called Vienna Accord. Yesterday, on June 7, the global market of crude oil got feverish. The reasons for that was all about the tensions around Qatar, which is an oil exporter from the Persian Gulf.
 
Publication date: 08 June 01:17 AM

Russia Wants Expensive Oil. Is It Really That Beneficial for the Russian Economy?

As you probably know, both Russia and Saudi Arabia are interested in lower oil supply in the global market since the deficit is expected to push oil prices higher, thereby resulting in bigger profits from their oil exports further down the road. That is why they seem to be doing their best to contribute to this ambitious goal.

Publication date: 06 June 11:06 AM

Russian Oil Production to Hit New All-Time High This Year, ACRA Experts Say

According to the experts working for Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA) from Russia, the long-awaited extension of the so-called Vienna Accord signed by OPEC and some of their non-OPEC peers led by Russia may eventually result in higher oil prices along with eliminating the long-lasting oversupply in the global market of crude oil. This is what the experts stated in the recent report on the prospects of the Russian oil industry until 2021.
 
Publication date: 05 June 01:07 PM

Oil Prices Don’t Care About OPEC’s Decisions

As you probably know, last Thursday, OPEC and their non-OPEC fellow decided to extend the so-called Vienna Accord during the recent summit in the capital of Austria. The mentioned agreement implies cutting oil production in order to back higher oil prices in the near future. The agreement was extended for 9 months – until the end of March 2018.

 

 
Publication date: 01 June 04:09 AM

Russian Economy Will Face Challenges After 2018

It’s getting more and more obvious that crude oil is not going to grow as expected, which is why the hopes laid by the Kremlin on higher oil prices and higher income from oil exports are probably not going to become a reality. Most likely, this is not going to happen over the next couple of years as well. Despite extending the Vienna Accord during the recent OPEC summit, the participants of the summit still cannot see the expected results as oil prices still haven’t shown any considerable rally, thereby indicating no significant progress.

Publication date: 28 May 11:46 PM

IMF Demands Land Reform From Ukraine

Pension and land reforms are the two questions on the agenda, without resolving which the Ukrainian government can forget about further loans from the International Monetary Funds.

Publication date: 28 May 11:30 PM

Standard & Poor’s Confirms Ukraine’s Rating

International rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has confirmed the long-term rating of Ukraine, both for national and foreign currencies. The rating is confirmed at «В-/В», with stable forecast for both national and foreign currencies.
 
S&P analysts underline that confirming the ratings reflects the progress achieved in the macroeconomic situation in Ukraine. The Ukrainian GDP is expected to grow by 1,9% this year.
 
Publication date: 28 May 11:08 AM

OPEC Extends Vienna Accord

The OPEC and their non-OPEC fellows are reported to have extended the so-called Vienna Accord today during the OPEC summit in the capital of Austria. The agreement designed to cut the participants’ oil production is expected to reduce the oversupply of crude oil in the global market in order to back higher oil prices. The agreement is extended for 9 months.
 
Publication date: 25 May 09:45 AM