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Gold and silver: market outlook

02 December 06:47 AM

Yesterday, after a strong rally on higher dollar liquidity, the markets were influenced mostly by macroeconomic stats. Investors wonder what are the prospects of the world’s biggest economies.

Today the US is to release its Non-Farm Payrolls. The forecast is +120К. Others say it may increase by 120К or even 125K. However, this is not expected to change the 9% rate of unemployment but may well reassure investors about the US economic prospects.

Yesterday the Senate elongated the period of lower taxes and denied tax hikes for the US middle class. It is expected to keep stimulating the country’s consumer spending in 2012.

Mario Draghi, ECB President, said yesterday that the bank is determined to take more cardinal steps probably hinting at possible interest rate cuts) in order to combat the eurozone crisis if during next week’s summit the EU leaders agree on tougher control over the budgets of all the 17 eurozone members and agree to make major decisions by a majority vote. Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel backed those requirements. On Monday they will meet to work out a detailed plan, which will be discussed on Dec 9^th.

The bond auctions held by Spain and France were a success, attended by high demand.

Goldman Sachs and HSBC anticipate interest rate cuts in China in 2012 in order to stimulate the world’s 2^nd largest economy.

Central banks keep buying up gold amid global uncertainty. South Korea bought 15 tons of gold in Sep and 25 tons in June-July, thus increasing its gold reserves up to 54.4 tons.

However, if investors gain more confidence about the global economy, the demand for precious metals as safe haven assets will probably decline, with inflation being the only factor to support gold and silver prices.

Forecast: According to the Department of Commodity Trading, Masterforex-V Academy, yesterday gold failed to consolidate above 1750. Today gold may test the 1750-1753 area once again. A failure may result in a downswing, with targets at 1740, 1725, 1718. In order to continue the rally gold will have to consolidate above 1750.

As for silver, $33/oz has been a strong barrier so far. Today silver may keep testing the 33.1-33.2 zone. A break above 33.2 is needed to continue the rally. A failure will give way to 32.6-32.5, and may be further down to 32.

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