The level of consumer activity increased a little bit in October. This is what the latest UBS report shows. The analysts say that the improvement has a lot to do with higher consumer confidence. The consumer activity index reached 1.6 points in October. The index improved relative to the revised September value of 1.56 points.
Still, the mentioned consumption growth was partially reduced by gloomy expectations regarding labor market prospects. When summing up, we can conclude that the current situation in Switzerland’s retail sales sector leaves much to be desired. This is confirmed by the latest KOF figures.
The index of business conditions in the retail sales sector keep staying below the long-term average. Official reports have been indicating poor performance as well. For example, the retail turnover improved by as little as 0.1% in September despite the fact that the retail prices on exported goods were going down due to a stronger national currency. Retail consumption accounts for the lion’s share of the Swiss GDP – some 50% of it. This means that this is one of the key indicators for the Swiss economy.
FOREX
Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc keeps showing weakness against the U.S. Dollar within the scope of a long-term downtrend, which means that USDCHF is rallying. More specifically, the currency pair is moving up within the scope of wave 3/C of level Monthly, the experts say. The price is developing sub-wave 3/C of a junior wave level inside of the rally.
A break below the bottom of the ascending MF sloping channel and MF pivot 0.9492 will indicate the end of the bullish move. Alternatively, the closest likely targets for the rally are the levels of resistance at 1.0287, 1.0425, 1.0539/48.
