The latest retail sales report published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) earlier in July indicated a decline. According to Market Leader, this came as a surprise for most analysts out there.
The decline was equal to 0,2% month over month (May against June). This is a huge gap between the 0.3% increase in May and the analytic forecast of +0.3%. The retail sales figures excluding fuels shrank by 0.2% as well. The actual figures were 0.4% below the forecast and May’s figures.
As for year-over-year figures, June’s retail sales gained 4.0% over the reporting period. Still, the dynamics is bearish since the previous y/y figures (in May) were equal to 4.7%. It should be noted that the retail sales slowdown in the UK has been going on for 27 months in a row. This is the longest bearish session since early 2008.
FOREX
Meanwhile, Masterforex-V Academy reports that GBPUSD keeps on developing a long-term tendency. On July 27th, 2015, the British Pound has suspended its downswing against the U.S. Dollar by completing wave A/B of level H4 down.
A break below the local low at 1.5466 is going to indicate the start of a bearish momentum of a bigger scale – at least level Daily2 or bigger. If this is the case, the price is probably going to find support around such levels as 1.5461, 1.5417/08, 1.5339/29 as well as 1.5450.
In case, there is an upward break out of the range above the 1.5672/75 highs, the currency pair is likely to start a bullish momentum - wave A/B of level Daily 2 or bigger. If the bullish scenario manifests itself, the momentum may well be capped by the following levels: 1.5700, 1.5757, 1.5807, 1.5859/89 and 1.5788.
