Today, on March 31st, the common European currency is already up by 0,3% against the US Dollar after losing a bit of its value previously. At this point, the currency pair is trading somewhere around 1.3788 after a short-term decline amid weaker-than-expected economic stats from the eurozone.
The biggest driver was the eurozone’s indicator of consumer inflation.
The report came out 0,5% instead of expected 0,6%. Still, the most significant news releases from the eurozone are yet to come. In particular, this week, the ECB is planning to announce it is interest rate decision as well as the decision on its further monetary policy. The announcement will take place on April 3rd.
Experts and analysts do not expect any major changes in the ECB's monetary policy. Still, the ECB may announce some preparatory steps for May's decisions. Meanwhile, the recent inflation report form the eurozone indicated the lowest figures since 2009, thereby hinting at possible deflationary processes in the eurozone. This weak report is likely to influence the ECB's forthcoming decision. More experts start comparing the eurozone to Japan, where deflation has been going on for a decade already.
Masterforex-V Academy has just analyzed the H4 chart of EURUSD to find out the near-term scenarios for the currency pair. At first, the common European currency was down by 0,14% on negative stats but later managed to regain strength.
The H4 chart indicates an uptrend that has been going one since February 3rd. This is the 3rd bullish momentum. Today’s decline can be considered as a secondary move (retracement) against this major tendency.
If to consider the fact that technically the overall bias is still bullish, the upward scenario looks more probable.
On breaking above the resistance level located at the 38,2% Fibo level, the rally may continue up to 1,3874 or even 1,3941.
If the currency pair continues the retracement, the most probable target will be 1,3670.
A further decline down to 1.3561 may well question the mid-term rally and lead to its reversal.
