Yuriy Ukazkin
Yesterday’s US CPI report for March showed a decline. However, it is still around the 12-month high thanks to higher employment.
The CPI declined from 71.6 down to 70.2 points. According to the survey conducted by Bloomberg, experts had anticipated a decline down to 70.0.
The highest employment growth in 6 months, the lowest rate of unemployment in 3 years and positive stats coming from US stock markets helped to make up for a significant gasoline price hike. The steady consumer sentiment uptrend will definitely contribute to an increase in consumer spending , which account for 70% of the US GDP. However, higher gas prices may affect the overall positive tendency. Nevertheless, the US economy is expected to keep recovering.
According to the Department of Masterforex-V Trading System , there are 2 major scenarios for the USD index:
■ Down
- elongation of wave а(С)/С
- end of wave а(С), в(С) и с(С)
- breaking below the MF pivot and sloping channel, wave level increase, new wave а(С)/С
■ Up
breaking above the MF sloping channel and pivot 1.6645, potential reversal - wave А
Yuriy Ukazkin
