Will the eurozone retain its present look? It is highly probable. The ECB and EU authorities keep promising to do their best to support the common currency at least for a year. Risky economies keep implementing austerity measures as the IMF is trying to help risky European banks. In near-term perspective, that may result in the devaluation of the common currency and the easing of the eurozone’s monetary policy. It is just an emergency aid, which won’t help the region to recover to the pre-crisis level. So, there is need in a long-term efficient solution that would imply sound economic growth.
Can President Obama be re-elected? Yes, it can. The Hollywood-style election campaign may well get a happy ending. Barack Obama is still popular with the US electorate as opposed to his Republican opponent. However, this is probably not going to prevent the Republicans form dominating the US Senate.
Will the European debt crisis spread over the UK? Yes, It probably will. Of course, it doesn’t mean that Great Britain will default. However, there has been no planned recovery of the British economy so far. The UK authorities have no other way out but to postpone servicing the country’s debt. If there is a double-dip recession, it will affect the country’s solvency and investor’s confidence.
Will the global economy accelerate its growth in 2012? Unlikely. The crisis keeps escalating, while the global economy keeps slowing down.
Will the USA regain its status of the global production leader? It is highly probable because the necessity of raising wages and salaries in China and higher prices on energy carriers will make China’s manufacturing production less interesting in terms of export. Moreover, in terms of hi-tech and innovation technologies, China has never been able (and won’t be able in the near future) to compete with the US.
In the meantime, the 6E futures contract (EURUSD) keeps being under pressure. It has already reached 1.2780:
