GBPUSD spent almost the entire week around the option level 1.5824. The news backdrop wasn’t positive. The UK’s CPI (y/y) matched the forecast, thus reaching 4.5% (+0.1%). The retail sales dropped 0.2%. Only the unemployment claims turned out to be positive for the UK (a 20.3K decline), thus causing a slight rally.
As for the USA, the data failed to add positivity as well. That is why GBPUSD stayed in the range between 1.5721 and 1.5824. The core retail sales (ex autos) gained only 0.1% instead of 0.2%. The amount of unemployment claims grew as well while the Philly Fed manufacturing index declined. Only the PPI stayed the same instead of losing 0.1%. The UoM consumer sentiment index came out better than expected.
This week we are going to see some interesting economic reports that are worth paying attention to, including Building Permits, Unemployment Claims. FOMC Statement is unlikely to be a surprise for traders and investors.
As for the UK, MPC Meeting Minutes will probably show the same results. Public Sector Net Borrowing is expected to reach 11.3B pounds against the negative value of 2B pounds in July (which made the currency pair hit August’s top at 1.6617). The volatility of GBPUSD may well increase if there are some value gaps between the actual data and the forecasts.
Sep 20th (GMT)
12:30 USD - Building Permits
Sep 21st (GMT)
08:30 GBP - MPC Meeting Minutes
08:30 GBP - Public Sector Net Borrowing
14:00 USD - Existing Home Sales
18:15 USD - FOMC Statement
Sep 22nd (GMT)
12:30 USD - Unemployment Claims
The option level 1.5721 is a major support. If the currency pair breaks below it, it may decline down to 1.5635 and 1.5474. The closest levels of resistance are 1.5824 and 1.5911.
