June 7th (GMT)
7th-10th GBP - Halifax HPI
19:45 USD - Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
June 8th (GMT)
Tentative GBP - Inflation Report Hearings
June 9th (GMT)
11:00 GBP - Assеt Purchasе Fаcility
11:00 GBP - Оfficial Bаnk Ratе
Tentative GBP - MРC Ratе Statemеnt
11:45 EUR - Minimum Bid Ratе
12:30 EUR - ECB Prеss Conferencе
12:30 USD - Trаde Balancе
12:30 USD - Unemployment Claims
June 10th (GMT)
08:30 GBP - Manufacturing Production
08:30 GBP - PPI Input
Last week after breaking over the option barrier at 1.6449 GBPUSD continued its rally and reached 1.6546 - the high of the month. Then it started declining. In advance of the US Consumer Sentiment report the currency pair went down. Within an hour after the release it declined by 52pts – from 1.6477 down to 1.6425. GBPUSD showed a strong reaction to the UK’s economic data. On Wednesday in advance of the PMI report the currency rate declined down to 1.6425. Right after the release it lost 24pts more as the significant indicator had declined in value from 54.2 down to 52.1. Within an hour GBPUSD passed 101 pts down. Further on, despite the surprising data on the amount of new jobs in the USA (38K instead of expected 180K) the British Pound lost 66pts against the US Dollar. It continued falling down to 1.6315. Only on June 2nd after the publication of positive data on the UK construction sector GBPUSD passed 101 pts up. The next inadequate reaction of GBPUSD was seen after the Unemployment Claims release (US). Despite the fact that the amount of the unemployed in the USA grew, GBPUSD fell down to the low of the day (1.6305) after passing 112pts. The next important news release was Services PMI (UK), which also turned out to be worse than expected and provoked a 57-point decline. The amount of new jobs in the US turned out to be worse than expected as well (54K instead 161K), the currency pair declined again from 1.6357 down to 1.6290. Then GBPUSD started recovering and closed the trading week at 1.6430 – the high of the week. Consequently, the max downswing was 260pts while the max upswing was 175 pts.
The current trading week is probably not going to be so rich in economic reports but some of them are of high importance. The Bank of England and the ECB are going to publish Оfficial Bаnk Ratе and Minimum Bid Ratе. The forecasts don’t promise any interest rate increases while some economic data leave much to be desired. But who knows? If there is an increase in the key interest rate, the volatility of GBPUSD will surge while the currency pair itself will rally.
On June 7th the Fed Res Chairman Ben Bernanke will make a speech at the IMF Conference about the USA’s economic perspectives.
The BoE’s Inflation Report Hearings will take place on June 8th for a couple of hours, during which GBPUSD will show high volatility.
On June 10th the UK’s Manufacturing Production and PPI Input will be released. The forecasts are unfavorable: Manufacturing Production is expected to decline down to 0.0% after the last month’s increase by 0.2% while PPI Input is expected to decline by 1.1% instead of the 2.6% increase seen a month before.
The option levels of support are 1.6327, 1.6232 .The option levels of resistance are 1.6449, 1.6565, 1.6727.
Provided by the Department of Options,
