Probably volatility is the only reason why any market (Forex, commodity and stock markets) exists. In finance, volatility is a measure for variation of price of a financial instrument over time. High volatility means that the asset price deviates within a wide range while low volatility means that the deviation range is narrow. When volatility is low trading is less risky. When significant information comes out volatility tends to grow. The more unexpected the info is for investors the more impact it has on the price of a certain asset (stocks, futures, currencies) and consequently on their volatility. So knowing the exact time of major news releases and the degree of their impact on market volatility is very important for any trader or investor.
April 5th (GMT)
23:15 USD - Fed Chаirmаn Bernаnke Speaks (April 4th)
5th-8th GBP - Hаlifаx HРI
08:30 GBP - Sеrviсеs РMI
14:00 USD - ISM Non-Mаnufаcturing PМI
18:00 USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes
April 6th (GMT)
08:30 GBP - Manufacturing Production
April 7th (GMT)
11:00 GBP - Аsset Purchаse Fаcility
11:00 GBP - Official Bank Rate
Tentative GBP - MPC Rаte Stаtement
11:45 EUR - Minimum Bid Rаte
12:30 EUR - ECB Press Confеrеncе
12:30 USD - Unemployment Claims
April 8th (GMT)
08:30 GBP - PPI Input
The most prominent news event of the last week was Non-Farm Unemployment Change. During the first minutes after the news release GDPUSD declined by 36pts and lost 25pts more within the next 10 minutes, thus falling from 1.6046 down to 1.5985. Then it declined 14pts more down to 1.5971 but eventually the currency pair started growing. It passed 160pts in 2 hours and ended the trading week with reaching 1.6131, which turned out to be the high of the day.
As we can see this trading week is not so rich in significant news events. However, the news releases mentioned above are quite significant and are expected to increase the volatility of GBPUSD.
The ECB is expected to raise the interest rate by 0.25% next week. Axel Merk, president of Merk Investments (US, California), assumes that the market participants finally start realizing that Euro can flourish and the interest rates may be raised, even despite the debt problems of the peripheral EU countries. It is also expected to influence the volatility of GBPUSD.
Ben Bernanke’s speech scheduled for April 4th, 23.15GMT, and the Bank of England’s Official Bank Rate (April 7th) are quite important events, especially if the future results greatly differ from the rumors.
The BoE’s stand remains unclear. It is going to announce its final interest rate decision 45 minutes before the ECB’s interest rate release. There are chances that some MPC members have changed their minds and abstained from voting for increasing the interest rate. Mervin King, Governor of the Bank of England, is the key person participating in these debates. Some of the British media hint at some hidden agreement with the government implying that the bank will maintain the interest rate as low as possible. The Sеrviсеs РMI release, scheduled for April 5th, may increase the pressure on the MPC members in terms of interest rate increase. The pressure will become more intensive if the index value grows.
The closest option levels of support are 1.6074 and 1.5999. The closest option level of resistance is 1.6232.
Provided by the Department of Options,
