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Foreign exchange market

NordFX. Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast. Early February 2019


NordFX is back with their weekly consensus forecast for the week. We must confess that the forecast based on a number of technical indicators and expert opinions have been really efficient in predicting future market behaviors. With that being said, this is an overview of the recent forecast made for the current trading week, which is February 4-8, 2019.
 

EURUSD

 
The market is hoping for a trade deal between the United States and China. On the last day of January, the two parties finished another round of talks. Analysts assume that achieving some progress in the talks required a lot of effort from both of them. The American side is reported to have shown the determination to reach success in the talks since Donald Trump needs positive news badly right now. On the other hand, the positive background was spoiled by the fact that the USA accused Huawei Technologies Co. if spying for China. Anyways, the next round of talks is scheduled for mid-February. It's to take place in Beijing, China. In the meantime, the U.S. Federal Reserve doubts the necessity to raise interest rates any further.
 
With that being said, while evaluating the mid-term prospects of EURUSD, 60% of the experts predict a stronger dollar. It's interesting to note that 70% of the experts bet on the common European currency a week ago.
So, they assume, backed by 80% of the oscillators and trending indicators on D1, that the currency pair is likely to try and test the upper border of the 1.1300-1.1500 sloping channel to consolidate somewhere in the 1.1500-1.1570 zone. If that's the case, the next target is 1.1625. 
 
30% of the experts believe in the opposite scenario. Their assumption is backed by 20% of the oscillators indicating an oversold currency pair. If that's the case, EURUSD is unlikely to break above 1.1500. So, the currency pair is expected to stay in the 1.1400-1.1500 range. If the news background is positive for the dollar, we will probably see a move down to 1.1300.
 

GBPUSD

 
On Tuesday, the Bank of England is to reveal its interest rate decision. Most likely, the rate will stay unchanged at 0,75%. Still, many more experts are worried about the situation around the Brexit, which is full of uncertainty. Every day, the situation keeps changing in favor of the scenario when the UK quits the EU without a major agreement. 
 
Given the uncertainty and growing risks, 65% of the analysts predict a GBPUSD drop, first down to 1.2930 and then 100 more points down. At the same time, 40% of the H4 indicators are green, 40% more are red and the remaining ones are neutral grey. As for D1, 60% - green, 30%  - red, 10% - grey. the closest level of resistance is 1.3215. If it's broken, 1.3250 and 1.3300 will be the next closest targets.
 

USDJPY

 
Eastern New Year is coming, which is why the USDJPY market may become unpredictable over the period. Yet, this is not just the time when many Asian companies close their fiscal year. This is the time when the Bank of Japan starts buying and selling huge amounts of various currencies. 

1549116689_USDJPY_04.02.2019.png

Such interventions by the Japanese financial regulator may result in a strong move worth hundreds of points. 70% of the experts anticipate a move down to 108.00-108.55, followed by a recovery up to 110.00. At the same time, according to 60% of the analysts, the exchange rate may reach 111,70 within the next couple of weeks. 
 

BTCUSD

 
The experts are split in 2 groups. Some of them think that the current situation is calm before the storm. The rest of them expect the market to be even calmer in the near future. The CEO of CoinList belongs to the latter. He assumes that all of the necessary instruments have already been created and the companies have been focused on innovating and improving products, which is why there's no reason to expect major market moves.
 
The mentioned forecast is backed by the recent research released by Circle Research. The report said that while the direct investments in cryptocurrencies shrank by 8,5 times last year, the investments in blockchain technologies increased by 3 times up to 5 billion dollars over the same period. With that being said, 70% of the experts still think Bitcoin will go down to last year's lows at 3,200-3,250 dollars per coin. The remaining 30% think the price will go up to 3,700-3,850 dollars per coin and then further up to 4,215 dollars per coin.
 

 

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