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Thursday, 18 April 15:21 (GMT -05:00)



Stock and commodities markets

Will U.S. Stock Market Grow This Year?


The American stock market has reached another crucial strange. The forthcoming macroeconomic stats may trigger a major move in any of the 2 directions. International experts say that the future market reaction will depend on a number of macroeconomic stats as well as several events. However, the current bias seems to be bullish since at this point, there are no major reasons to expect another stock market crash within the next 12-18 months.
 
Over the period of early October - the end of 2018, S&P 500 lost around 15,6% but given the uptrend that preceded the mentioned downtrend, the overall annual performance in 2018 turned out to be -8,2%. The index started 2018 in the green zone. In particular, over the first 8 days of the year, S&P 500 gained 2,85% and reached 2580 points. At this point, international experts are trying to figure out whether this was a temporary recovery or the beginning of a new rally.
 
In reality, the bears sound really convincing. For starters, they still take into account the risk of the Fed raising the key interest rates this year. Since early 2018, the Fed has already implemented 4 interest rate hikes (from 1,5% all the way up to 2,5%). Every time this is happening, this is bad news for the stock market, so the market starts going down.
 
At the same time, the skeptics are talking about the possibility of higher inflation rates in the USA. For those of you who don't know, the inflation rate is directly related to the interest rates since curbing inflation is the key reason for tougher monetary policies pursued by the Federal Reserve. In January - November 2018, the inflation rate increased from 2,1% up to 2,5%.
 
The next argument to take into account is the statement about the reversal of the so-called yield curve of American 
T-bonds. In early December, the 3-year U.S. T-bond yield increased the 5-year one. Stating from 1955, the yield curve has always indicated a forthcoming recession in the USA. However, in post cases, it was the change in the spread between the 2-year and 10-year bond yields that indicated the recession. For now, everything is fine with them.
 
At the same time, international experts name another reason to be concerned. In particular, they say that the current bullish cycle in the U.S. stock market has been abnormally long. The bears say economic cycles last for 10 years, but this statement should be treated as an emotional and opinionated look at the current situation. Historically, those cycles varied in length, with some of them being well over 10 years long.
 

The market hasn't reached the edge yet.

 

Some experts say that the stock market is driven by emotions. Sir John Templeton once said, “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” This is exactly what we could see in the late 1990s in the dot-com sector and in 2005-2007 in the real estate sector. The euphoria led to a crash and economic collapse. Still, the current market situation isn't indicating such triggers yet. Non of the sectors has euphoria. Real estate, industrial stocks, and commodities are all reasonably priced at this point. The P/E multiplier of S&P 500 has dropped down to 21 points, as opposed to 25 points seen 12 months ago. The forward value of the multiplier is 16,5. With that being said, the market hasn't reach this state yet.
 
At the same time, some other experts draw our attention to a couple of indicators. Those are said to have reached dangerous values right before each recession in the U.S. economy. At the same time, the Yield Curve and the PMI are the other 2 indicators that would find themselves in the red zone right in advance of another recession. At this point, non of the 6 key indicators has turned red. This leads us to belive that the market bias is probably going to stay bullish over the next 12-18 months.
 

 

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Experts Anticipate U.S. Stock Market Crash This Winter

As you probably know, the U.S. stock market has been in the red zone over the last few weeks. International experts assume that this downtrend is likely to continue in the first quarter of 2019. The key reason is the fact that really huge volumes of risky assets are under the risk of forced sales, Market leader reports, with reference to Forbes.

Publication date: 04 January 04:13 AM

Why did crude oil crash by almost 11% last week?

The past trading week was a nightmare for the global market of crude oil, with a major price crash. In particular, Brent oil dropped in value all the way down to the lowest price since July 2017. This was a dive below 53 dollars per barrel. Since then, international experts have been trying to figure out the reason for that.
Publication date: 26 December 09:40 AM

Russia and OPEC agreed to cut down on their oil production in 2019

As you probably know, the participants of the latest OPEC summit agreed to cut down on their oil production next year. This triggered a temporary price rally in the international market of crude oil.
Publication date: 23 December 02:01 AM

OPEC and Saudis Are Planning To Back Oil Prices

International experts and governments have been closely watching the drama going on in the international market of crude oil. According to The Wall Street Journal, Saudi Arabia is going to quit the overproduction of crude oil for the sake of preventing oil prices from going down any further and, if possible, backing their new growth.
Publication date: 05 December 11:00 AM

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Golden Medium: Russia Isn't Concerned About Decreasing Oil Prices

Market Leader reports that the global market of rude oil has been seen a prolonged downtrend after a pretty strong rally seen over a couple of months in a row. Not so long ago, a barrel of Brent oil used to cost 86 dollars. At this point, it costs just 70 dollars. Still, the Russian authorities don't seem to be concerned about this price drop at all. Experts say the see no reason to worry about the situation.
Publication date: 12 November 11:57 AM

Apple's Market Cap Drops Below 1 Trillion Dollars

Apple's market capitalization has dropped below 1 trillion dollars. Market Leader reports that this summer, Apple became the world's first company to reach such a stunning result - market cap over 1 trillion dollars. Apparently, all of that became possible due to higher Apple stock prices.
Publication date: 07 November 02:18 AM

Gold Keeps Losing Its Safe-Haven Asset Status

The amount of political and economic crises keeps on growing in the world but gold is still going down in value. International experts have been trying to figure out the reasons why contemporary investors are investing in other assets instead of gold as it used to be ages. It's interesting to note that they are mostly investing in dollar assets.

Publication date: 25 October 11:52 AM

USA Leaves China Without Crude Oil, Russia Is Ready To Compensate

The trade war between the United States and China is still underway. Earlier this month, America made another attempt to undermine the Chinese economy. The thing is, that up until recently, America used to be one of the biggest exporters of crude oil to China. In summer, the U.S. export of crude oil to China used to be equal to 10,5 million barrels a month. At this point, America has almost suspended the export of crude oil to China. Last month American oil companies shipped as little as 600K barrels, with no oil shipping planned for this month.

Publication date: 17 October 10:29 AM

Evgeniy Filichkin: FortFC Launches pre-ICO

While skeptics armed with political axioms, and complicated math formulas, are trying to persuade the world that sooner or later, the cryptomarket industry is doomed to exhaust its potential at some point in the future, the cryptomarket itself is becoming a part of the global economy.

Publication date: 03 October 09:10 AM