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Tuesday, 19 February 08:00 (GMT -05:00)



Foreign exchange market

Dollar Will Go Higher, FortFS


Given the current tension present in the international arena these days, more and more market players are closely watching the major currencies' exchange rates. In their analytic forecast, FortFS experts have named a few factors capable of affecting the U.S. Dollar. The exerts say that the index futures indicate a positive start for the American stock market.
 
Monday's trading session turned out to be negative for the stock market, mainly due to weak economic stats from China and poor industrial production stats from Europe. On Tuesday, the American indexes were ready for positive performance, backed by the news background. The good news is that the Chinese government is planning to do their best to back stronger economic growth. In particular, they are reported to be implementing various stimuli to back the national economy, which has been slowing down for a while, given the current trade limitations. 
 
The stimuli may include tax cuts for small business and refiners. On top of that, they are expected to support the local car manufacturing industry, coupled with higher public spending. Long story short, the news form China may well be called the key source of positiveness in the stock market seen over the last few days.
 
In the meantime, the Forex marker can see the dollar getting stronger within the scope of the current recovery. On Monday, the index gained 0,3% and reached 95.50. The common European currency moved down to the 1.1410-1.1420 area. Gold keeps on trading within a relatively narrow price range, which is 1285-1296.
 

Tech Analysis of EUR/USD based on Gann Swings and Price Action.

 

Daily chart. The bearish swing hasn't stopped in the 1.1443-1.1450 range, which means the downtrend is likely to go on, probably down to 1.1341, ForFS experts say.

H1 chart. Within the scope of a local price pattern, we can clearly see a downtrend. At this point, the currency pair is forming a trending swing, which is why selling is considered a good option only after the price is down with something that now seems to be a recovery attempt (probably, somewhere inside the 1.1448-1.1450 area).
 

 
The major scenario implies going down to 1.1400, with a following recovery to 1.1438-1.1450, which may well be the launchpad for another strong bearish swing to 1.1341.
The alternative scenario implies going down to 1.1341 right from the current levels.
 
Possible trading decisions:
Selling at 1.1438-1.1450, the goal is 1.1341.
Looking to buy around 1.1341.

 

 

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