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Sunday, 16 June 05:48 (GMT -05:00)



Foreign exchange market

Crypto Traders Expect Growth, NordFX


The balance of powers in the Forex market depends on a number of factors. Getting familiar with an unbiased forecast helps market players figure out what to do next and what to expect in the market. Such information hits an the most probable market scenarios that may manifest themselves in the near future, which in its turn may give them a decent opportunity to increase the potential profit.
 

Roman Boutko, an expert from NordFX has released another forecast for the current trading week. For starters, he offers to take a look at the previous trading week to evaluate how precise it eventually turned out to be. When creating this consensus forecast, they expert analysed the forecasts made by a number of experts, who make use of different analytical methods and techniques. This is what the current consensus forecast looks like:

 

Studying the EUR/USD chart shows that the price created a pennant in November, with a tendency to consolidate around 1.1315-1.1350. While prediting the next price move of EUR/USD, 60% of the experts, and more than 90% of the technical indicators (H4 and D1) taken into account during the process of making the consensus forecast, assume that the most probable scenario is another round of strengthening of the U.S. Dollar against the Euro, with testing this year's low at 1.1215.

.Прогноз по EURUSD от NordFX

 
The nearest market trends will probably be determined by the G20 summit as well as the Fed chairman's speeches on Wednesday and Friday. On top of that, the end of the week is the time when the U.S. Department of Labor is expected to release another report on the American labor market. According to numerous forecasts, the so-called Non-Farm Payrolls may drop some 15-20% against the previous stats. If that's the case, the American national currency may weaken a bit. It should also be noted that when widening the scope of the forecast from weekly to monthly one, 605 of the experts are bullish on the currency pair. In particular, they expect a recovery up to the 1.1400-1.1500 area.
 
As for GBP/USD, the currency pair is currently close to the area of local lows of 1.2670-1.2695. The graphical analysis of the H4 chart (which is supported by 90% of trending indicators and oscillators) predicts a move down below the area, with a chance of entering the 1.2600-1.2620 area. 
 
Still, having considered a number of major factors, unlike the indicators, the experts are not in a hurry to make specific predictions. Only 55% of them are clearly bearish on the currency pair. The others are sure that the currency pair won't be able to break below the mentioned lows and will head for 1.2900 instead.
 
Also, the experts aren't clear about the near-term prospects fo the Japanese Yen. The experts are divided 50/50 on the direction in which USDJPY is expected to move over the trading week. Apparently, they are waiting for the results of the G20 summit, which set a lot of controversial expectations
 
When it comes to cryptocurrencies, making specific predictions is even more difficult given the fact that the true value fo digital currencies is next to impossible to figure out. Indeed, they are purely digital, which is why they don't actually have any intrinsic value, thus making those forecast differ from each other quite a lot. Mining costs are not something that international experts have been focused on in this case.
 
Still, 60% of the experts expect Bitcoin to continue its way down to 3000 dollars per coin. 30% belive the world's first cryptocurrency will manage to stay in the range between 4000 and 4500 dollars per coin. The remaining 10% are convinced that the current market situation is nothing but big players' attempt to manipulate the market and force the crowd into selling them the coin at a discount.

 

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