Where this is good or not, we can still see the entire political and economic structure of Europe gradually changing. More and more experts, name the countries who may well follow the United Kingdom and hold their own referendums on EU membership.
It all started with the so-called Grexit, or Greek exit from the EU, but the plan wasn’t implemented. Now it’s the UK that is busy making its way out of the EU. Who is next?
The Brexit definitely toughen the disputes between the advocates of a united Europe and their adversaries, who are often known as Euro-skeptics. While the former are convinced that the integrity of the EU and the Eurozone is not in jeopardy, the latter say that the EU and the Eurozone are doomed to crash, and the question is “when” rather than “if”.
Still, more and more of those international experts assume that no political union can exist forever, but they are cautious about their predictions and do not name any specific forecasts for the near-term fate of the EU and the Eurozone. Even if the EU ceases to exists, we may well see another European union emerging instantly after this.
At the same time, it’s important to keep in mind that various EU members are of different importance to the union. If this is also a Eurozone member, it’s more valuable for Brussels and if such a country decided to quit the union, this is definitely going to be more painful to the union than seeing any peripheral European economy dying the same thing. Basically, that’s why the UK’s decision to quit the EU turned out to be less painful than the same initiative coming from Greece a couple of years ago.
In almost every country across the EU, there are parties promoting the idea of quitting the EU or the Eurozone. With that said, Euro-skeptics assume that it’s safe to say that the Brexit is the first but not the last exit from the EU or the Eurozone.
Once again, it all depends on specific countries. For example, if Croatia decides to quit one day, this is not going to be a devastating blow. However, if the same decision is made by, say, France, this is definitely going to undermine the union and even put an end to it.
Also, it’s all about economy and geopolitics. Strong economies with favorable geolocation and hinting and their desired to quit the union may well gain some loyalties and prerogatives in exchange for staying an EU and Eurozone member.
For instance,Stratfor experts assume that European economies can be split into 4 groups based on the likelihood of quitting the EU:
- The outsiders. These are Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Poland. Those countries are skeptical about Brussels and want to retain a certain share of their sovereignty. Still this is not a reason to expect any steps I the mentioned directions. The thing is, most of those countries are financed by the EU, which allows them to stay afloat.
- The fragile Eurozone periphery. Those economies are really fragile and feel the need for tighter European integration. Greece, Portugal , and Spain are now hoping for the same financial support to stay afloat. In most cases, those countries started questioning the EU after the global crisis followed by austerity. Those countries are not planning to quit the EU but may change their mind in case of another severe crisis.
- The coalition builders. Those are rich and financially secure countries such as Austria, Finland, and the Netherlands etc. They do not want to sponsor the rest of the EU. They also want relative sovereignty. They are often dependent on exports and feel the need to defend their European outlets.
- The big 3. These are the Eurozone’s biggest economies – Germany, France, and Italy. Should the Eurozone and the EU see any major changes in the structure, those countries are definitely going to be in the vanguard of those processes. It should be noted that Italy’s debt is growing and increasing the Euro-skeptical mood in the country. Some experts say that Italy may well try to speculate on the matter to try and gain some privileges. The future of the EU and the Eurozone depends mostly on Germany and France. If one of them wants to quit the union, this is definitely going to change the union, or even make it crash. The EU’s integrity relies on their coordinated policies.
